5 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 5, 2017

 

 

S&P: 2425
  • Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Upcoming market moving events: FOMC Minutes, US Factory Orders,
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Market closed
Resistance Support
2450 20 June high  –All-time high 2421 3 July low /Session low
2447 26 June high 2414  29 June low
2444 29 June high 2402 31 May low /30 June low
2436 3 July high 2397 (50% of 2344/2450)
2431 Session high 2390 Minor


DJI: 21438
  • Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Upcoming market moving events: FOMC Minutes, US Factory Orders
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Market closed
Resistance Support
21650 Minor 21403 Session low
21600 Minor 21307 3 July low
21550 Minor 21260 (23.6% of 20474/21504) / Rising trend support
21504 3 July high  – all-time high 21137 29 June low
21471 Session high 21110 (38.2% of 20474/21504)


ASX SPI: 5734
  • Short term momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher?
  • Upcoming market moving events: AIG Performance of Services Index
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The ASX had its best day of the year as investors jumped back into the market, as the Aud$ fell sharply after the RBA left rates unchanged. The banks led the way higher after the news that SA Liberals will block the state-based bank levy. The ASX finished at just below the 5747 high and it would appear that may see a test of the 100 DMA which has recently been capping the topside. Given the quiet condition elsewhere I would be a bit surprised if the index moved much higher than that today, although the dailies do seem to be picking up some positive momentum. Buying dips towards 5700 is mildly favoured today but I remain cautious given the choppy nature of the recent price action.
Resistance Support
5801 2 June high 5715 Minor
5793 14 June high 5700 100 HMA
5771 (50% of 5944/5598)/100 DMA 5680 200 HMA
5755 Minor 5663 Session low
5747 Session high 5624 27 June low/200 DMA


XAUUSD: 1223
  • Short term momentum indicators: Mixed.
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
  • Upcoming market moving events: FOMC Minutes
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Gold has traded a tight session, but with the daily momentum indicators pointing lower, looking for levels to sell it seems to be the plan. 1230/35 will now provide decent resistance, while support will be seen at 1210/15 and then again at 1195/00. SL on shorts @1245.
Resistance Support
1250 Pivot 1219 3 July low
1242 3 July high 1214 9 May low
1237  (23.6% of 1295/1219) 1208 (50% pivot of 1122/1295)
1234 200 DMA 1200 Pivot
1226 Session high 1195 10 March low


XAGUSD: 16.08
  • Short term momentum indicators: Mixed.
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
  • Upcoming market moving events: FOMC Minutes
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Silver has followed Gold lower although the support at 16.00 currently remains intact. The daily charts suggest that a break looks likely at some stage, and below 16.00 would open up 15.60/65.  Selling rallies is favoured, although it may be quiet day given the US holiday. Selling at 16.25 with a SL at 16.65 may be a plan.
Resistance Support
16.90 29 June high 16.04 Session low
16.70 29 June high 15.85 Minor
16.58 100 WMA 15.63 20 Dec low
16.45 Minor 15.50 Minor
16.20 Session high 15.25 Minor


WTI: 47.04
  • Short term momentum indicators: xxxx
  • Daily momentum indicators: xxxx
  • Upcoming market moving events: xxxx
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: WTI has been steady on Tuesday but is hanging on above 47.00, and with the momentum indicators looking positive, look for a move towards 47.85 and possibly on towards 48.15. On the downside, support will be seen at 46.70 and then 46.00. Trading from the long side is still preferred although the short term momentum indicators are becoming overstretched and we may see a bit of a dip, giving us a better level to get set.
Resistance Support
49.14 1 June high 46.71 Session low
48.60 Minor 46.00 (23.6% of 42.03/47.29)
48.15  (61.8% of 51.97/42.03) 45.50 Minor
47.85 (50% pivot of 53.73/42.03) 45.30 100 WMA /(38.2% of 42.03/47.07)
47.07 3 July high 44.65 (50% of 42.03/47.29)