The US holiday has meant quiet conditions in all markets on Wednesday although traders are looking ahead with some nervousness, as the potential trade war remains the main theme, with US tariffs on China and the latter’s retaliation becoming effective on July 6. With the NFP due on Friday, it could be a busy end to the week!
In terms of data, the main interest was in the UK Services PMI which rose to 55.1, up from 54.0 and beat expectation of 53.9, which opens the way for a possible August BoE hike.
Unfortunately, the day looks like getting off to a very slow start following on from the US holiday, with nothing at all to be released in Asia and then with precious little to come from the EU either, aside from the German Factory Orders for May and a speech each from the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney and the BuBa’s Weidmann. The US will disturb the peace and quiet though with the result of the June FOMC Minutes, which should have a hawkish tilt given the rate hike last month, with the chance of more to come. Also, to be released will be the ISM Non-Mfg for June (exp 58.2), the Markit Services/Composite PMIs (exp 55.4/56), the weekly jobless claims and the ADP Private Jobs data (exp +180K), and which comes ahead of tomorrow’s US Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings (exp 3.8%, 190K, 0.3%). WTI trades will be looking out for the EIA weekly crude oil stock change. Have a good day.
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