5 Mar: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | March 5, 2019

The US$ is firmer at the start of Tuesday trade and in the short term at least it appears set to remain that way against the EU majors, but at the same time it looks a little toppish against the Jpy. The Aud looks heavy to me still although it has had a choppy/rangebound session against the US$, sitting above important support at 0.7070, which I think will give way for substantially lower levels, and a more sustained test of 0.7000 may lie ahead. The RBA Statement, today, maybe a catalyst to help it on its way.

On the crosses, some Jpy strength is emerging against the EU majors, while the Aud seems to be weak on all fronts, with AudNzd of interest as it seems to want to take a look at parity.

The metals look increasingly heavy and I like to remain short, while US stocks also seem to be turning down, so selling rallies is preferred.

As for WTI, it looks to me as though we are in for further choppy trade between the 100 WMA (58.00) and the 200 WMA (52.00) in the days ahead.

Economic data highlights for the coming session will include:

Tue: Australian Current Account, RBA Interest Rate Decision, German Retail Sales, EU/US Composite/Services PMIs, EU Retail Sales, US New Home Sales (Dec), ISM Non-Mfg PMI, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory, Global Dairy Trade Index


*Trade of the day: March 5, 2019; 9:57 AM(AET)                            

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1270/1.1370 (SL 30 pips either side)

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7125. SL @ 0.7050, TP @ 0.7010

Sell Gold @ 1300. SL @ 1310, TP @ 1285

Sell DJI @ 26000. SL @ 26300, TP @ 25300