5 Nov: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | November 5, 2018

Friday saw plenty of volatility both before and after the release of the US employment data, and although the US$ does remain under some pressure on Monday against the EU majors and the commodity currencies, it has recovered from its Friday lows and looks rather mixed ahead on Monday’s opening.  Ahead of the US mid-terms, tomorrow/Wednesday, we can probably expect plenty of choppy trade although I doubt that we see anything too directional ahead of the release of the results, so a cautious stance is mostly required.

Technically, the currency charts are showing us very little and I would generally avoid most of them on Monday although both the AudUsd and the NzdUsd do look as though they may have put in a top, so tentatively looking to sell rallies, with a SL above Friday’s highs may be a plan.

Elsewhere, the US indices hint that stocks may have further near-term downside, while WTI still looks very heavy and selling rallies here could be an idea although with the US sanctions on Iranian oil due to be re-imposed today, it could become quite volatile.

Keep an eye on USDCNH, which does look increasingly toppish following Friday’s selloff and could see a return to the 6.80/85 area, where it may again be a buying opportunity.

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                  

Mon:  AIG Performance of Mfg Services Index, BOJ Minutes, TD Inflation, ANZ Job Ads, Caixin China Services PMI, EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey, UK Services PMI, US Services PMI/Composite PMI, ISM Non-Mfg PMI

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*Trade of the day: November 5, 2018 7:07 AM(AET)                       

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm, NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1450. SL @ 1.1510, TP @ 1.1350

Range Trade: US$Jpy: 112.80 /113.80 (SL 30 pips either side)

Range Trade: AudUsd: 0.7235/0.7135 (SL 30 pips either side)

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7240. SL @ 0.7275, TP @ 0.7100

Sell WTI @ 64.40. SL @ 65.50, TP @ 61.50

Sell S+P @ 2745. SL @ 2770, TP @ 2665