|EurUsd is lower today, falling from a session high of 1.2280 as bear pressure grew on the back of the equity market rally and the firmer US$. The fall has seen the Euro head to 1.2218 before any bounce, with the pair ending the day at 1.2240 and looking heavy ahead of today’s US jobs data.|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower||Daily Indicators: Turning lower?||Weekly Indicators: Possible topping formation.|
|Preferred Strategy: The Euro has fallen, to sit just above the major rising trend support trend support at 1.2220, a break of which could then head towards Fibo support at 1.2170 and the 100 DMA at 1.2150. Below there would target 1.2085 and possibly 1.2025.
On the topside, nearby resistance will be seen at 1.2260 and at the session high of 1.2290 ahead of the 4 Apr high of 1.2315, the 3 April high of 1.2335 and at the 2 Apr high at 1.2345. Further out, a stronger Euro would target 1.2370, 1.2420 and even1.2470, but seems unlikely for a while at least.
Given the speculative long Euro positioning, I still mildly prefer the downside and would look to sell rallies, although ahead of today’s US jobs data it may be that we chop around current levels..
|1.2345||2 Apr high/200 HMA||1.2220/17||Major Rising trend support /Session low|
|1.2335||3 April high||1.2200||Minor|
|1.2315||4 Apr high||1.2170||(38.2% of 1.1553/1.2555)|
|1.2289||Session high||1.2154||1 March low/100 DMA|
Economic data highlights will include:
German Industrial Production, US Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, Fed Chair Powell Speech
|It took a while today to break above 107.00, but having done so as sour risk sentiment abated, US$Jpy has not looked back and has traded to a high of 107.48, where the daily cloud base is currently providing decent resistance..|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher||Daily Indicators: Turning higher||Weekly Indicators: Turning lower|
|Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators generally look constructive again today and if we can take out the NY high of 107.49 then we could see an approach on the mid-February highs at 107.67/90. 108.00/10 would then be a target above which could see a move to 108.45/50.
On the downside, minor support will be seen today at 107.00 and at the day’s low of 106.70. Below there, a bad NFP outcome could see a reverse towards 106.30, 106.00, and possibly towards the 3 April low of 105.68 although this seems unlikely right now.
Further out, if stocks do turn lower again, taking US$Jpy along for the ride, a move back below the 200 MMA (105.60) would open the way to 105.30, a break of which would allow a return to 104.60. Below that, there is little to support the dollar until 103.50 – This currently looks well beyond the horizon and overall I prefer to be trading from the long side.
|108.10||(38.2% of 113.75/104.60)||107.00||Minor|
|107.90||21 Feb high||106.70||Session low|
|107.67||27 Feb high||106.30||100 HMA|
|107.48||Session high /Daily cloud base||105.98||4 Apr low|
Economic data highlights will include:
Japan Leading Economic Index, Coincident Index
|Cable traded lower after the soft UK Services PMI and headed to the Daily cloud top at 1.3965 before a mild bounce to finish at 1.4000.|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower||Daily Indicators: Turning lower?||Weekly Indicators: Turning Neutral|
|Preferred Strategy: Cable is beginning to look increasingly heavy and I prefer to be short although all will depend on the NFP later today. Below the session low would allow for a run towards 1.3915, which should be strong support but below which would open 1.3890 and 1.3860.
On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 1.4050 ahead of 1.4100 although I don’t think we head back here today. Looking to sell rallies is preferred with a tight SL placed above 1.4100.
|1.4096||Session high||1.3977||(50% of 1.3715/1.4243)|
|1.4075||Minor||1.3965||Session low /Daily cloud top/Daily Kijun|
|1.4050||100 HMA||1.3915||(61.8% of 1.3715/1.4243) /Rising trend support|
|1.4030||Minor||1.3890||16 Mar low|
|US$Chf traded a little higher today in reaching the good resistance level at 0.9640, just above where it currently sits. The momentum indicators look mildly constructive but resistance remains solid, at the 200 DMA and then at the 200 WMA (0.9680) although I think this will eventually be taken out, for a run towards 0.9700 and eventually higher.|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher||Daily Indicators: Turning higher||Weekly Indicators: Neutral|
|Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators look mildly bullish again today but a cautious stance is required as we approach the 200 DMA ahead. Out of choice I still prefer to look to buy dips.
On the topside, the immediate resistance will be seen at 0.9640/50 and then at.0.9665 beyond which would head towards 0.9680, which will be strong and then0.9700.
On the downside, support will be seen at the session low near 0.9600, and then at 0.9580 ahead of the 4 Apr low of 0.9550. Below there would head back to 0.9525/30 and to 0.9500/05. Sidelined – possible range trade ahead of the NFP, but prefer to look to buy dips towards 0.9600 with a SL placed under 0.9550.
|0.9680||200 WMA/Weekly cloud base||0.9575||100 HMA|
|0.9666||18 Jan high||0.9550||200 HMA /4 Apr low|
|0.9652||200 DMA||0.9532||(23.6% of 0.9187/0.9596)|
|0.9639||Session high||0.9526||2 Apr low|
|As with the Aud, the Kiwi tried the upside in reaching 0.7322 but then reversed and currently sits above the day’s low of 0.7261, with direction now to come from offshore influences.|
|1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower||Daily Indicators: Neutral||Weekly Indicators: Turning Neutral|
|Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators have turned lower today but the longer term charts are fairly neutral, so a cautious approach is required.
Overall, I still prefer the downside in the medium term because I think the US$ is about to run higher, although with the dailies being neutral I am not expecting too much.
The short term momentum indicators do look mildly negative though and on the downside the initial support will be seen at 0.7250/60. Below there would allow 0.7225 ahead of stronger bids likely to arrive at 0.7195/0.7200. Below 0.7195 would allow a run to 0.7185 and then, further out, to 0.7150/55, 0.7140 and 0.7110 would attract.
On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.7300, above which there is not a lot to stop a return to 0.7330, ahead of the March high of 0.7354 and then to the Fibo level at 0.7370.
Selling rallies is preferred.
|0.7370||(76.4% of 0.7436/0.7153)||0.7261||Session low|
|0.7354||13 Mar high||0.7253||4 Apr low/200 HMA|
|0.7328||(61.8% of 0.7436/0.7153)||0.7220||Minor|
|0.7322||Session high||0.7194||3 April low|
|0.7300||Pivot||0.7185/87||200 DMA /28 Mar low/Rising trend support|