6 Apr: Stocks, US$, Yields all firm ahead of today’s US employment data.

By | April 6, 2018

 

The US$ is generally firm today while stocks have ended higher for a third consecutive day as White House officials signalled that Donald Trump’s tough talk on trade won’t lead to protectionist tariffs. The gains in US assets came about despite some soft data on Thursday, but traders are more focused on Friday’s upcoming employment data. The US initial jobless claims rose 24K to a seasonally adjusted 242K for the week ended March 30, missing economists’ forecast for a rise to 225K while the US trade deficit widened to $57.60 bio in February from $56.70 bio in January, the 6th consecutive monthly deficit. The metals are a little lower on the back of the stronger dollar, while WTI has been choppy, but is largely unchanged on the day.

Friday will focus almost entirely on the US Jobs data although before then the German Industrial Production for Feb will be released, but largely ignored (exp 0.3% mm).  For the US jobs data, expectations are for Unemployment 4.0%, NFP +198k, AHE +0.2%mm/2.7%yy, AWH 34.5 and PR 63.5%. Much of the focus will again be on the AWH and if the numbers come in at close to expectation it is hard to see where the dollar is going to get much of a lift from, with US 10 year yields likely to hang pretty close to the current 2.83%. On the other hand, a strong outcome should see the US$ and yields head higher, which should then have a negative impact on stocks. Also note that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks (after the NFP release) on the economic outlook to the Economic Club of Chicago. Have a good weekend.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2240
Res  1.2260  1.2290  1.2315
Sup  1.2220  1.2200  1.2170
USDJPY: 107.41
Res  107.70  107.50  107.90
Sup  107.15  107.00  106.70
GBPUSD: 1.4003
Res  1.4030  1.4060  1.4100
Sup  1.3965  1.3940  1.3915
USDCHF: 0.9634
Res  0.9650  0.9665  0.9680
Sup  0.9615  0.9600  0.9580
AUDUSD: 0.7686
Res  0.7725  0.7700  0.7755
Sup  0.7665  0.7640  0.7625
NZDUSD: 0.7275
Res  0.7300  0.7320  0.7350
Sup  0.7255  0.7220  0.7185
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2663
Res  2675  2690  2710
Sup  2650  2630  2610
DJI: 24488
Res  24585  24775  24990
Sup  24320  24100  23850
ASX SPI: 5789
Res  5800  5815  5835
Sup  5760  5775  5745
XAUUSD: 1328
Res  1335  1345  1355
Sup  1320  1310  1300
XAGUSD: 16.39
Res  16.45  16.55  16.65
Sup  16.30  16.20  16.10
WTI: 63.71
Res  64.10  64.45  65.40
Sup  63.05  62.65  62.05