6 Dec: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | December 6, 2017

 

S&P: 2628
The S&P has rejected an early squeeze up to 2648 and is closing on its lows at 2627 weighed down by Tech Stocks
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower? Daily Indicators: Up – Possible topping formation. Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Despite the increasing risks of staying long, the long term uptrend currently remains intact although the short term momentum indicators and the dailies do appear to be trying to push for a deeper move into negative territory. Trying to pick the top of the stock market has been a graveyard for a long time now though so I prefer to remain sidelined.
Resistance Support
2680 Minor 2632 Session low
2675 Minor 2630 Minor
2670 Minor 2620 200 HMA
2664 4 Dec high     – all-time high 2610 Minor
2648 Session high 2600 Minor


DJI: 24175
Ditto S+P
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
24650 Minor 24152 Session low
24600 Minor 23922 1 Dec low
24550 Minor 23850 Minor
24534 4 Dec high- all-time high 23800 30 Nov low
24386 Session high 23750 27 Nov low


ASX SPI: 5951
The ASX has fallen steadily through the Tuesday session to finish on its lows. Good support lies at 5950 although a break could quickly lead to 5920 and 5900.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  While above 5950, I remain neutral. A downside break could see a move towards 5900/20 but while the weeklies point higher, buying dips towards 5900 may be a plan, with a tight SL placed under 5875.
Resistance Support
6050 Minor 5952 Session low
6043/46 13 Nov high/9 Nov high 5948 1 Dec low /(23.6% of 5625/6046)
6018 4 Dec high 5929/27 20 Nov low/16 Nov low
5995 Session high 5900 Minor
5970 Minor 5885 (38.2% of 5625/6046)


XAUUSD: 1266
Gold had a tough session in heading lower although the strong support at 1260 has remained intact at this stage. Watch Silver, which seems to be leading the way lower.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – the short term momentum indicators seem to be turning a little lower but otherwise, the broad range-trade between 1260/95 seems set to remain intact. A sustained break of 1260 could see a move to 1250 and possibly to 1240.
Resistance Support
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1261/63 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA/ Rising trend support/Session low
11299 27 Nov high 1255 Minor
1297 30 Nov high 1251 8 Aug low
1289/1285 1 Dec high/100 DMA 1242 26 July low /76.4% of 1205/1358
1277 4 Dec high /Session high 1230 Minor


XAGUSD: 16.11
Silver fell to 16.02, a new 5 month low on Tuesday and is beginning to look increasingly heavy as medium term support levels begin to look rather thin.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look a little more positive on Wednesday but the dailies are picking up increasing downside momentum so selling rallies is preferred, looking for an eventual run back to the Fibo support at 15.90, below which there is only minor support at 15.60, ahead of the July low at 15.18.

Sell Silver @ 16.40. SL @ 16.85, TP @ 15.90

Resistance Support
         16.85 (38.2% of 17.38/16.02) 16.02 Session low
16.70 Minor 15.88 (76.4% of 15.1818.21)
16.55 (23.6% of 17.38/16.02) 15.75 Minor
16.40 Minor 15.50 Minor
16.25 Minor 15.18 10 July low


WTI: 57.64
WTI traded a choppy 57.06/57.89 on Tuesday and more of the same seems possible today until the release of the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change, late in the US session.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  The mixed look of the momentum indicators suggests a neutral stance. The dailies hint at slightly lower levels ahead although overall, with the weeklies still pointing higher, I still think we are likely to see a move towards 60.00 at some stage and buying dips may still be the plan.
Resistance Support
59.02 24 Nov high 57.40 Minor
58.90/95 200 WMA/27 Nov high 56.06 Session low
58.86 1 Dec high 55.72 (23.6% of 45.56/58.95)
58.30 4 Dec high 55.00 Minor
57.89 Session high 54.80 14 Nov high


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