6 Feb: US$, stocks firm ahead of Trump’s SOTU speech. RBA’s Lowe also speaking. Thin calendar later.

By | February 6, 2019

It has generally been a fairly quiet session, with the US$(+0.25%) and the US stock indices (+0.4%/0.6%) trading mildly higher as traders look forward to the Presidents State of the Union Address, which Donald Trump will give during the Asian session. There have been a couple of notable exceptions to the steady markets, with Cable trading sharply lower, initiated by a poor UK Construction PMI and then exacerbated by the ongoing uncertainty about Brexit talks, pushing Cable back below 1.3000.  The other standout was the Australian Stock Market which jumped over 2% after the release of the Senate Banking Inquiry and has maintained those gains overnight, in line with the US indices.

The Swiss Franc was of interest on Tuesday, with US$Chf breaking back above parity and staying there (just!) for the first time since mid November.

Elsewhere the metals were unchanged again while WTI was 1.5% lower as the ISM Non-Mfg data missed expectations, slowing to a 5 month low in January and increasing worries of demand for crude on a global scale.

Wednesday will see the US SOTU address from Donald Trump – during the Asian session – as well a s a speech from the RBA Governor Phillip Lowe. Both will be closely watched, with Trump likely to project a feel-good bias towards the US outlook, while the RBA’s Lowe could provide some volatility for the Aud$ following on from yesterday’s Interest Rate Decision. That aside we are in for a quiet session. Holidays dominate in Asia, and NZ is also out today. Later on the German Factory Orders and US Goods Trade Balance and Non-Farm Productivity are due, while the Global Dairy Trade Index and the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change will also be released.

Economic data highlights will include:                                                  

Wed: NZ Holiday, Donald Trump SOTU address, RBA Governor, Lowe, speech, German Factory Orders, US Goods Trade Balance, Non-Farm Productivity, Global Dairy Trade Index, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1412
Res  1.1440  1.1465  1.1500
Sup  1.1400  1.1375  1.1350
USDJPY: 109.94
Res  110.15  110.45  110.80
Sup  109.75  109.40  109.05
GBPUSD: 1.2951
Res  1.2975  1.3000  1.3030
Sup  1.2925  1.2895  1.2865
USDCHF: 1.0002
Res  1.0020  1.0045  1.0075
Sup  0.9970  0.9940  0.9910
AUDUSD: 0.7232
Res  0.7245  0.7265  0.7295
Sup  0.7210  0.7190  0.7165
NZDUSD: 0.6892
Res  0.6905  0.6925  0.6945
Sup  0.6870  0.6850  0.6825
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2732
Res  2740  2755  2770
Sup  2720  2705  2695
DJ30.fs: 25337
Res  25420  25560  25690
Sup  25215  25075  24925
SPI200.fs: 5957
Res  5985  6020  6055
Sup  5925  5885  5850
XAUUSD: 1314
Res  1320  1325  1330
Sup  1310  1305  1300
XAGUSD: 15.83
Res  15.95  16.10  16.25
Sup  15.70  15.55  15.40
WTI.fs: 53.70
Res  54.55  55.80  56.80
Sup  53.20  52.40  51.35

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