6 Jan: US$ lower after mixed jobs data. Stocks rangebound, commodities firm. NFP ahead today.

By | January 6, 2017

 

The US$ is heavy at the end of Thursday trade after some mixed job data, which comes ahead of today’s monthly US employment report. The initial jobless claims dropped 28k to 235k in the week ended December 31, much lower than expectation of 260k, while on the other side of the coin the ADP jobs report grew by 153k in private sector jobs in December, missing expectation of 170K.  While waiting on today’s NFP report, stocks are pretty much unchanged and commodities have generally had another decent session on the back of the softer dollar. Of particular note, US$/Jpy was volatile but has headed a fair bit lower by the end of the session, while Sterling has again been upbeat, underpinned by some upbeat Services data which underlined the UK economy’s post-Brexit resilience.

Friday will probably be quiet for the most part as traders look towards the US Jobs data for guidance as to the Fed’s thinking at their next meeting on Jan 26. The charts generally appear to suggest that the dollar is going to remain under pressure.

Economic data today will include:

EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, US Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data (December; exp 4.7%, +175K, +0.3%), Trade Balance (Nov; exp -$42bio)

We will be running a partial service this week with full technical analysis to resume next week. Until then, any directional bias can be found in the trending table.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0599
Res  1.0650  1.0675  1.0700
Sup  1.0555  1.0525  1.0485
USDJPY: 115.53
Res  115.85  116.05  116.40
Sup  115.20  114.75  114.30
GBPUSD: 1.2416
Res  1.2460  1.2510  1.2550
Sup  1.2385  1.2350  1.2300
USDCHF: 1.0103
Res  1.0140  1.0180  1.0220
Sup  1.0085  1.0035  1.0000
AUDUSD: 0.7338
Res  0.7355  0.7370  0.7390
Sup  0.7315  0.7300  0.7280
NZDUSD: 0.7027
Res  0.7035  0.7050  0.7070
Sup  0.7000  0.6980  0.6950
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2260
Res  2270  2278  2290
Sup  2250  2240  2226
DJI: 19795
Res  19920  19965  20000
Sup  19800  19735  19655
ASX SPI: 5722
Res  5730  5750  5770
Sup  5700  5680  5650
GOLD: 1181
Res  1186  1196  1204
Sup  1170  1160  1150
SILVER: 16.58
Res  16.70  16.85  17.00
Sup  16.40  16.25  16.00
OIL (WTI): 53.70
Res  54.10  54.50  55.20
Sup  53.30  52.75  52.10