6 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

Commodities:
WTI is 4% lower, ending the longest bull-run in more than five years, as climbing OPEC exports and a stronger dollar turned sentiment more bearish. Late in the day the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory figures showed a bigger than expected inventory draw of 5.76 million barrels.
Gold and Silver remain heavy but off their lows, with Silver breaking below 16.00, but finishing the day back above – just.
Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
The Fed minutes hinted at increasing tensions on inflation shortfall
Fed policymakers discussed possible reasons why financial conditions had not tightened following hikes in the Fed funds rate
Several Fed board member wanted to announce the start of balance-sheet trimming within a ‘couple of months’

S&P: 2428

24 Hour Outlook: Neutral		Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The sideways action continues and a similar session today would not surprise while waiting for tomorrow’s NFP reading
Resistance		Support
2450	20 June high –All-time high	2418	Session low
2447	26 June high	2414	29 June low
2444	29 June high	2402	31 May low /30 June low
2436	3 July high	2397	(50% of 2344/2450)
2431	Session high/4 July high	2390	Minor

…

DJI: 21424

24 Hour Outlook: Neutral		Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Ditto S+P
Resistance		Support
21650	Minor	21403	4 July low
21600	Minor	21307	3 July low
21550	Minor	21260	(23.6% of 20474/21504) / Rising trend support
21504	3 July high – all-time high	21137	29 June low
21471	4 July high	21110	(38.2% of 20474/21504)

…

ASX SPI: 5709

24 Hour Outlook: Neutral		Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The 100 DMA/200 DMA continues to do their job in containing the ASX and this looks likely to be the case again today. The momentum indicators are mixed and a range trade either side of 5700 looks likely. The larger 100 DMA/200 DMA range also seems set to continue so trade that or go with a break of either 5770/5625
Resistance		Support
5801	2 June high	5703	Session low
5793	14 June high	5685	200 HMA
5771	(50% of 5944/5598)/100 DMA	5663	4 July low
5755	Minor	5640	Minor
5747	4 July high	5624	27 June low/200 DMA

…

XAUUSD: 1227

24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies		Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Gold has traded a range of 1217/28, leaving the outlook unchanged. 1230/35 will now provide decent resistance, while support will be seen at 1210/15 and then again at 1195/00. Leave a SL on shorts @1245. The short term momentum indicators are hinting at slightly higher levels, but if seen, I suspect that they will provide a better sell level for the longer term downtrend.
Resistance		Support
1250	Pivot	1217	Session low
1242	3 July high	1214	9 May low
1236	(23.6% of 1295/1219)	1208	(50% pivot of 1122/1295)
1234	200 DMA	1200	Pivot
1228	Session high	1195	10 March low

…

XAGUSD: 16.05

24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies		Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Silver fell to 15.88 today before recovering to finish at 16.00. The short term momentum indicators looks a little more positive but the dailies still point lower so selling rallies remains preferred, with a SL placed above 16.60.
Resistance		Support
16.90	29 June high	15.88	Session low
16.70	29 June high	15.63	20 Dec low
16.58	100 WMA	15.50	Minor
16.45	Minor	15.35	Minor
16.22	5 July high	15.20	Minor

…

WTI: 45.60

24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips		Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Buying dips was the wrong strategy yesterday given that WTI fell by 4%, and with the momentum indicators now turning lower, selling rallies would seem to be the plan. I would remain a little cautious today, but selling at 46.00/20 with a SL above 47.20 may be a plan.
Resistance		Support
47.21	Session high	44.89	Session low
46.70	Minor	44.65	(50% of 42.03/47.29)
46.40	Minor	44.40	Minor
45.85	Minor	44.03	(61.8% of 42.03/47.29)
45.25	Minor	43.75	Minor

…