6 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | July 6, 2017

 

  • Commodities:
  • WTI is 4% lower, ending the longest bull-run in more than five years, as climbing OPEC exports and a stronger dollar turned sentiment more bearish. Late in the day the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory figures showed a bigger than expected inventory draw of 5.76 million barrels.
  • Gold and Silver remain heavy but off their lows, with Silver breaking below 16.00, but finishing the day back above – just.
  • Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
  • The Fed minutes hinted at increasing tensions on inflation shortfall
  • Fed policymakers discussed possible reasons why financial conditions had not tightened following hikes in the Fed funds rate
  • Several Fed board member wanted to announce the start of balance-sheet trimming within a ‘couple of months’
S&P: 2428
  • Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral – Turning lower?
  • Upcoming market moving events: ADP Jobs data
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The sideways action continues and a similar session today would not surprise while waiting for tomorrow’s NFP reading
Resistance Support
2450 20 June high  –All-time high 2418 Session low
2447 26 June high 2414  29 June low
2444 29 June high 2402 31 May low /30 June low
2436 3 July high 2397 (50% of 2344/2450)
2431 Session high/4 July high 2390 Minor


DJI: 21424
  • Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral – Turning lower?
  • Upcoming market moving events: ADP
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Ditto S+P
Resistance Support
21650 Minor 21403 4 July low
21600 Minor 21307 3 July low
21550 Minor 21260 (23.6% of 20474/21504) / Rising trend support
21504 3 July high  – all-time high 21137 29 June low
21471 4 July high 21110 (38.2% of 20474/21504)


ASX SPI: 5709
  • Short term momentum indicators: Turning lower?
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Upcoming market moving events: Trade Balance (exp +1.1 bio)
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The 100 DMA/200 DMA continues to do their job in containing the ASX and this looks likely to be the case again today. The momentum indicators are mixed and a range trade either side of 5700 looks likely. The larger 100 DMA/200 DMA range also seems set to continue so trade that or go with a break of either 5770/5625
Resistance Support
5801 2 June high 5703 Session low
5793 14 June high 5685 200 HMA
5771 (50% of 5944/5598)/100 DMA 5663 4 July low
5755 Minor 5640 Minor
5747 4 July high 5624 27 June low/200 DMA


XAUUSD: 1227
  • Short term momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Gold has traded a range of 1217/28, leaving the outlook unchanged. 1230/35 will now provide decent resistance, while support will be seen at 1210/15 and then again at 1195/00. Leave a SL on shorts @1245. The short term momentum indicators are hinting at slightly higher levels, but if seen, I suspect that they will provide a better sell level for the longer term downtrend.
Resistance Support
1250 Pivot 1217 Session low
1242 3 July high 1214 9 May low
1236  (23.6% of 1295/1219) 1208 (50% pivot of 1122/1295)
1234 200 DMA 1200 Pivot
1228 Session high 1195 10 March low


XAGUSD: 16.05
  • Short term momentum indicators: Turning higher
  • Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Silver fell to 15.88 today before recovering to finish at 16.00. The short term momentum indicators looks a little more positive but the dailies still point lower so selling rallies remains preferred, with a SL placed above 16.60.
Resistance Support
16.90 29 June high 15.88 Session low
16.70 29 June high 15.63 20 Dec low
16.58 100 WMA 15.50 Minor
16.45 Minor 15.35 Minor
16.22 5 July high 15.20 Minor


WTI: 45.60
  • Short term momentum indicators: Down – Becoming Oversold
  • Daily momentum indicators: Up – Turning Neutral?
  • Upcoming market moving events: xxxx
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Buying dips was the wrong strategy yesterday given that WTI fell by 4%, and with the momentum indicators  now turning lower, selling rallies would seem to be the plan. I would remain a little cautious today, but selling at 46.00/20 with a SL above 47.20 may be a plan.
Resistance Support
47.21 Session high 44.89 Session low
46.70 Minor 44.65 (50% of 42.03/47.29)
46.40 Minor 44.40 Minor
45.85 Minor 44.03 (61.8% of 42.03/47.29)
45.25 Minor 43.75 Minor