- Commodities:
- WTI is 4% lower, ending the longest bull-run in more than five years, as climbing OPEC exports and a stronger dollar turned sentiment more bearish. Late in the day the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory figures showed a bigger than expected inventory draw of 5.76 million barrels.
- Gold and Silver remain heavy but off their lows, with Silver breaking below 16.00, but finishing the day back above – just.
- Economics/ Politics/Central Banks:
- The Fed minutes hinted at increasing tensions on inflation shortfall
- Fed policymakers discussed possible reasons why financial conditions had not tightened following hikes in the Fed funds rate
- Several Fed board member wanted to announce the start of balance-sheet trimming within a ‘couple of months’
S&P: 2428 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral – Turning lower?
- Upcoming market moving events: ADP Jobs data
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The sideways action continues and a similar session today would not surprise while waiting for tomorrow’s NFP reading | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
2450 | 20 June high –All-time high | 2418 | Session low |
2447 | 26 June high | 2414 | 29 June low |
2444 | 29 June high | 2402 | 31 May low /30 June low |
2436 | 3 July high | 2397 | (50% of 2344/2450) |
2431 | Session high/4 July high | 2390 | Minor |
…
DJI: 21424 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral – Turning lower?
- Upcoming market moving events: ADP
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Ditto S+P | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
21650 | Minor | 21403 | 4 July low |
21600 | Minor | 21307 | 3 July low |
21550 | Minor | 21260 | (23.6% of 20474/21504) / Rising trend support |
21504 | 3 July high – all-time high | 21137 | 29 June low |
21471 | 4 July high | 21110 | (38.2% of 20474/21504) |
…
ASX SPI: 5709 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Turning lower?
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Upcoming market moving events: Trade Balance (exp +1.1 bio)
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The 100 DMA/200 DMA continues to do their job in containing the ASX and this looks likely to be the case again today. The momentum indicators are mixed and a range trade either side of 5700 looks likely. The larger 100 DMA/200 DMA range also seems set to continue so trade that or go with a break of either 5770/5625 | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
5801 | 2 June high | 5703 | Session low |
5793 | 14 June high | 5685 | 200 HMA |
5771 | (50% of 5944/5598)/100 DMA | 5663 | 4 July low |
5755 | Minor | 5640 | Minor |
5747 | 4 July high | 5624 | 27 June low/200 DMA |
…
XAUUSD: 1227 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Gold has traded a range of 1217/28, leaving the outlook unchanged. 1230/35 will now provide decent resistance, while support will be seen at 1210/15 and then again at 1195/00. Leave a SL on shorts @1245. The short term momentum indicators are hinting at slightly higher levels, but if seen, I suspect that they will provide a better sell level for the longer term downtrend. | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
1250 | Pivot | 1217 | Session low |
1242 | 3 July high | 1214 | 9 May low |
1236 | (23.6% of 1295/1219) | 1208 | (50% pivot of 1122/1295) |
1234 | 200 DMA | 1200 | Pivot |
1228 | Session high | 1195 | 10 March low |
…
XAGUSD: 16.05 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Turning higher
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Silver fell to 15.88 today before recovering to finish at 16.00. The short term momentum indicators looks a little more positive but the dailies still point lower so selling rallies remains preferred, with a SL placed above 16.60. | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
16.90 | 29 June high | 15.88 | Session low |
16.70 | 29 June high | 15.63 | 20 Dec low |
16.58 | 100 WMA | 15.50 | Minor |
16.45 | Minor | 15.35 | Minor |
16.22 | 5 July high | 15.20 | Minor |
…
WTI: 45.60 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Down – Becoming Oversold
- Daily momentum indicators: Up – Turning Neutral?
- Upcoming market moving events: xxxx
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Buying dips was the wrong strategy yesterday given that WTI fell by 4%, and with the momentum indicators now turning lower, selling rallies would seem to be the plan. I would remain a little cautious today, but selling at 46.00/20 with a SL above 47.20 may be a plan. | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
47.21 | Session high | 44.89 | Session low |
46.70 | Minor | 44.65 | (50% of 42.03/47.29) |
46.40 | Minor | 44.40 | Minor |
45.85 | Minor | 44.03 | (61.8% of 42.03/47.29) |
45.25 | Minor | 43.75 | Minor |
…