6 June: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | June 6, 2019

It has been a volatile ride on Wednesday, but ended with the dollar regaining some lost ground, while oil has seen further losses.

Thursday’s attention will be on the ECB Interest Rate Decision – and how dovish, or not, Mario Draghi will be. Otherwise, things are likely to stay on hold while waiting on tomorrow’s NFP outcome, where a weak number could enhance the current expectations of a Fed rate cut and would put the US$ lower, but with stocks and the metals likely to be the winners. Further anxiety about the global growth forecasts is not likely to be any assistance to oil, which is already feeling the heat.

EurUsd: The Euro has reached 1.1305 on Wednesday, briefly taking out strong resistance at 1.1275 (50% pivot of 1.1449/1.1106/100 DMA/descending trend resistance), before retreating sharply, to make a bearish outside-day and suggesting that the move higher may have been a false upside break. If so, on the downside, the initial support will be seen at 1.1215 (55 DMA), a break of which opens the way to minor Fibo levels at 1.1190 and 1.1160, ahead of a possible return to 1.1115 and the 23 May spike low at 1.1106. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.1250, 1.1275 and at the day’s peak of 1.1305. Above there, could see a run towards 17 April high of 1.1323, which conveniently ties in with the 200 WMA, at 1.1340 but will only arrive if tomorrow’s NFP is very weak, I suspect.

US$Jpy: is at 108.45, having made a bullish outside day after bouncing from a low of 107.80, and looks to have some minor upside potential today although it could be a rangebound one ahead of tomorrow’s NFP, and will likely be pulled about today by flows in EurJpy after the ECB Meeting. (Note the BOJ Governor Kuroda is speaking today). Further gains would head towards 108.70 (minor) and then to 108.90 (200 HMA/23.6% of 112.39/108.70). Above here, 109.00/15 offers resistance at several previous lows, above which would run into 109.55 (38.2% of 112.39/108.70). On the downside, support will be seen at 108.00/20 and then at 107.80. This seems unlikely to be seen today, but if wrong, the next target is seen at 107.50 (4 Jan low).

AudUsd:  The Aud made it up to 0.7006 ahead of a sharp reversal to currently sit at 0.6967. The short term momentum indicators are pointing sharply lower and support levels to watch will be at 0.6950/60 (100 HMA/38.2% of 0.6864/0.7006) and again at 0.6935/40 (200 HMA/50% pivot of 0.6864/0.7006). Below here may be a stretch but further levels to watch would be at 0.6925 (rising trend support), 0.6915 (61.8% of 0.6864/0.7006) and 0.6900 (0.6897 = 76.4% of 0.6864/0.7006). A rally will find offers at 0.6980/90 and again at the Wednesday high of 0.7006. Beyond there looks unlikely, but further levels to watch would be at  the 55 DMA at 0.7035, which is also 50% pivot of 0.7205/0.6864, above which could run towards the 100 DMA/ 61.8% of 0.7205/0.6864 at 0.7075, ahead of 0.7100 and possibly the 200 DMA (0.7125).

NzdUsd: The Kiwi spiked to a high of 0.6665 ahead of a sharp reversal, to currently sit at 0.6617, and with the short term momentum indicators pointing lower we could be in for a sterner test of 0.6600. There is little to move the Kiwi today and it may be a quiet session ahead, but below 0.6600 (38.2% of 0.6495/0.6665) would allow for a run towards 0.6580 (50%) and possibly towards 0.6560 (38.2%). On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6630 and 0.6650 (both minor), ahead of the spike high at 0.66650. The dailies remain positive, so above here, the 200 DMA is at 0.6705 and the 100 DMA is at 0.6735 which will provide decent resistance if we see it.

Gold:  made it up to 1344 on Wednesday virtually reaching the strong resistance which lies at 1346 (20 Feb high) before retreating, to currently sit at 1330. With the short term momentum indicators now looking heavy, I suspect the downside may be the weak link today, and would look for a possible run back towards 1317 (38.2% of 1275/1344), 1310 (50%) and possibly to 1301 (61.8%). On the topside, with the dailies currently pointing strongly higher, resistance will be seen at 1340/45, which will be strong, but above which could then head towards 1354 (18 Apr 2018 high) and 1365 (11 Apr 2018 high). Looking to buy dips currently seems to be the plan

Silver: as with Gold, Silver spiked higher on Wednesday, to meet strong resistance at 15.03 (38.2% of 16.21/14.29) before a sharp retreat to currently sit at 14.80. The short term momentum indicators now look rather heavy and a return to minor support at 14.65 would not surprise. Below there would allow for 14.50 and the recent low at 14.30, albeit probably not today. The dailies look mildly constructive and above 15.05 would open the way to 15.20/25 (100 DMA, (50% pivot of 16.21/14.29) and 15.48 (61.8% of 16.21/14.29). Buying dips is mildly preferred although there seem to be easier trades right now.


*Trade of the day: June 6, 2019; 8:19 AM(AET)                      

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1275. SL @ 1.1310, TP @ 1.1180

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1175. SL @ 1.1145, TP @ 1.1290

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7000. SL @ 0.7040, TP @ 0.6900

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6925. SL @ 0.6890, TP @ 0.7000

Buy US$Jpy @108.00. SL @ 107.70, TP @ 108.70

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6650. SL @ 0.6685, TP @ 0.6575

Buy NzdUsd @ 0.6580. SL @ 0.6545, TP @ 0.6650