6 Mar: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | March 6, 2019

The US$ is again firm at the start of Wednesday trade and, in the short term at least, it appears set to remain that way against the Eur and the Chf although the other currencies look a little less certain. With the daily DXY charts turning higher, buying dips in the dollar is preferred and I suspect that EurUsd may soon be about to test the November low of 1.1215.

The Aud still looks heavy to me although it has had a choppy/rangebound session against the US$, having held on above the 12 Feb low of 0.7053. We may get something more directional today, with the Q4 GDP figures to be released shortly. These are unlikely to be overly positive for the Aud$ and I think that a more sustained test of 0.7000 may lie ahead.

The crosses are mixed, and I would tend to stand aside for a while although GbpAud seems bid in the medium term while EurGbp seems rather heavy. With both being dominated by Brexit headlines I think there are better opportunities elsewhere.

The metals still look heavy in the medium/longer and I like to remain short although the short-term momentum indicators do hint at the chance of a bounce so looking to sell the rally seems to be the plan.

US stocks seem to be turning down, so selling rallies is preferred, with a SL placed above the recent highs.

As for WTI, it looks to me as though we are in for further choppy trade between the 100 WMA (58.00) and the 200 WMA (52.00) in the days ahead.

Economic data highlights will include:

Wed: RBA Governor Lowe speech, Australian Q4 GDP, Trade Balance, US ADP Jobs data, Trade Balance (Dec), Factory Orders, New Home Sales (Jan), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change.

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*Trade of the day: March 6, 2019; 10:44 AM(AET)                            

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1250/1.1350 (SL 30 pips either side)

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7115. SL @ 0.7050, TP @ 0.7010

Sell Gold @ 1295. SL @ 1305, TP @ 1285

Sell DJI @ 26000. SL @ 26300, TP @ 25300