6 March: US$ slips despite Fed signals of imminent Fed rate hikes ahead. RBA/ECB/PBoC + US Jobs data due this week.

By | March 6, 2017


 The dollar ended on a softer note on Friday but up about 1% over the week, in volatile trade, late in the day. This came about after various Fed speakers, including Janet Yellen, indicated that a March rate hike is very much on the table as long as the economic data retains its current upward path and more or less implied that at least 2 hikes are in line for 2017. In what looks like a “buy-the-rumour/sell-the-fact” move, it now appears that a March rate hike is now pretty much priced in and that we can expect further two way volatility but possible little directional movement as we approach the FOMC meeting on March 15. Stocks finished slightly lower, while commodities made back their early losses as the dollar came under pressure late in the Friday session.

The coming week will be busy, with the focus being on the interest rate decisions to come from the RBA, PBOC and the ECB as well as the monthly Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data due on Friday. There will be plenty else besides, particularly from China where we have a data download on most days. Other highlights will include the EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey (Mon), the EU GDP (Tue) and the UK Consumer Inflation Expectation (Fri). Today will see some early action in the Aud with the release of the TD Inflation, the ANZ Job Ads and the January Retail Sales (exp +0.4%). Have a good week.


US$ sold off against all the major currencies as Yellen/Fischer speeches prove anticlimactic, repeating the claim for a near term rate hike but seeing economic potential at only about 2%, keeping a lid on yields and the dollar. US Factory Orders today

Euro makes gains on the crosses. EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey today.

Sterling remains under pressure after a weaker-than-expected services PMI on Friday.

Commodity bloc recovers after a bounce in commodities. Australian Retail sales, Job Ads due today.


US STOCKS: Choppy but without any real direction

ASX SPI: Choppy but without any real direction

METALS: Choppy but higher at the end of the day on the back of the weaker dollar.

OIL: WTI was choppy but ended higher, underpinned by the softer dollar.


The levels in this table are a guide only. For more in depth analysis please go the “Articles” tab at the top of the page and scroll down

EURUSD: 1.0619
Res  1.0630  1.0675  1.0700
Sup  1.0560  1.0520  1.0495
USDJPY: 114.02
Res  114.30  114.50  114.75
Sup  113.80  113.60  113.45
GBPUSD: 1.2294
Res  1.2305  1.2350  1.2390
Sup  1.2245  1.2215  1.2180
USDCHF: 1.0076
Res  1.0135  1.0145  1.0160
Sup  1.0070  1.0050  1.0025
AUDUSD: 0.7594
Res  0.7600  0.7630  0.7650
Sup  0.7575  0.7545  0.7505
NZDUSD: 0.7043
Res  0.7065  0.7100  0.7125
Sup  0.7025  0.7000  0.6960
S+P: 2381
Res  2383  2390  2400
Sup  2373  2366  2357
DJ30.fs: 20990
Res  21035  21125  21160
Sup  20925  20835  20765
SPI200.fs: 5728
Res  5740  5755  5765
Sup  5725  5710  5695
GOLD: 1234
Res  1244  1250  1260
Sup  1222  1216  1206
XAGUSD: 17.95
Res  18.00  18.20  18.45
Sup  17.65  17.50  17.25
OIL (WTI): 53.18
Res  53.35  53.65  54.05
Sup  52.90  52.50  52.00