6 Nov: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | November 6, 2017

 

 

S&P: 2581
Preferred Strategy: The S+P continues its slow but steady march higher in making another new all-time high on Friday, and from the look of the charts, a test of 2600 seems imminent. As before, I prefer not to be involved at these lofty levels although at this stage there is little sign of a turn around.
24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2650 Minor 2573 Friday low
2600 Minor 2562 2 Nov low
2595 Minor 2557 27 Oct low
2590 Minor 2550 Minor
2585 1 Nov high     – all-time high 2541 25 Oct low /(23.6% of 2415/2580)


DJI: 23446
Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P. The DJI also looks as though the run higher is set to continue although the daily charts are beginning to suggest that some caution is warranted on the downside. As with the S+P, I prefer not to be involved at these levels although at this stage there is little sign of a turn around and a move towards 23500 seems to be on the cards.
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
23600 Minor 23415 Friday low
23550 Minor 23288 2 Nov low
23500 Minor 23268 31 Oct high
23450 Minor 23201 25 Oct low
23492 Friday high  – all-time high 23104 20 Oct low


ASX SPI: 5959
Preferred Strategy: The ASX SPI200 had a strong close to the week and looks set to run towards 6000. The daily/weekly momentum indicators remain positive although the shorter term charts are showing a degree of bearish divergence so buying dips is preferred.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
6020 Minor 5920 Friday low
6010 March 2015 high 5907 2 Nov low
5990 Minor 5884/80 31 Oct low /(23.6% of 5625/5960)
5970 Minor 5865 Minor
5960 Friday high 5850 Minor


XAUUSD: 1270
Preferred Strategy: Gold remains under pressure but is currently holding above the recent low and the 200 DMA. As long as we stay above 1260, then I think we could see a minor squeeze back towards 1280/85 but it looks set to remain choppy although if the dollar gains further ground then the downside will be vulnerable.  If we do see gains in the dollar, we should then look for a run towards 1250, where the rising trend support will provide decent support but below which could see a quick move towards 1240.For now I remain neutral but prefer to sell rallies.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1274/73 100 DMA
1296 17 Oct high 1266 Friday low
1291 20 Oct high 1263 27 Oct low
1284 2 Nov high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA
1280 Friday high 1251 8 Aug low/Rising trend support


XAGUSD: 16.83
Preferred Strategy: Gold remains under pressure but is currently holding above the recent low and the 200 DMA. As long as we stay above 1260, then I think we could see a minor squeeze back towards 1280/85 but it looks set to remain choppy although if the dollar gains further ground then the downside will be vulnerable.  If we do see gains in the dollar, we should then look for a run towards 1250, where the rising trend support will provide decent support but below which could see a quick move towards 1240.For now I remain neutral but prefer to sell rallies.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1274/73 100 DMA
1296 17 Oct high 1266 Friday low
1291 20 Oct high 1263 27 Oct low
1284 2 Nov high 1261 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA
1280 Friday high 1251 8 Aug low/Rising trend support


WTI: 55.68
Preferred Strategy: WTI extended its rally on Friday to reach the highest level in two years amid expectations that OPEC/Non-OPEC members will extend the deal to curb production beyond its current expiry date next March. The price also get a late boost after the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count  showed a surprisingly large weekly drop in U.S. oil rigs, increasing expectations for a slowdown in US  crude output growth.

Having moved up to 55.73 on Friday, there is little to stop WTI heading to 57.00, beyond which could then see a run on to 60.00 although this still remains over the horizon. On the downside, minor support arrives at 55.00 ahead of 54.40 and 53.75/54.00. Trading from the long side is still preferred.  Buy WTI @ 55.00. SL @ 54.00, TP @ 57.00.

24 Hour: Neutral  – Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
59.00 200 WMA 55.00 Minor
57.00 (38.2% of 1.0765/26.03) 54.38 Friday low
56.50 Minor 53.96 2 Nov low
56.00 Minor 53.73 30 Oct low
55.73 Friday high 52.80 Minor