6 Nov: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | November 6, 2018

Monday was fairly subdued ahead of the US elections which begin later today, and from the mixed look of the charts it would seem that we are in or further choppy conditions ahead, but possibly without too much directional movement, at least until some results begin to appear.

US stocks look positive and buying dips may be a plan although the session could become increasingly volatile, depending on how the results come in so I would avoid becoming involved for now.

As far as the FX markets go, Sterling is leading the way higher, on hopes of a Brexit breakthrough although the charts are currently mixed and I would tend to stand aside. The Jpy looks under some mild downside pressure against both the dollar and on the crosses although I am not sure that here will be any real directional move today.

Much the same looks likely elsewhere, with little bias either way although both the Aud and the Kiwi look slightly better bid on the longer term charts. I am still not sure I want to buy either of them at these levels though, especially ahead of the FOMC Meeting (Wed) where, although no change is expected, I would think that the Fed will reaffirm a December rate hike is more of less a done-deal – further widening the differential between the US$ and its counterparts.

WTI still looks heavy although is now becoming oversold so stand aside.

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                  

Tue: US Mid-Term Elections, UK BRC Retail Sales, Japan Services PMI, RBNZ Inflation Expectations, RBA Interest Rate Decision/Statement, German Factory Orders, EU Services/Composite PMIs, JOLTS, Global Dairy Trade Index, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

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*Trade of the day: November 6, 2018 6:46 AM(AET)                       

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1500. SL @ 1.1540, TP @ 1.1350

Range Trade: US$Jpy: 112.75 /113.75 (SL 30 pips either side)

Range Trade: AudUsd: 0.7250/0.7150 (SL 30 pips either side)

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7265. SL @ 0.7290, TP @ 0.7165