6 Nov: US$ heavy, stocks firm ahead of US elections. RBA ahead, – no change expected-and all eyes on Melbourne Cup!

By | November 6, 2018

The US$ is generally under some mild pressure on Monday in subdued conditions and looks set to continue in the short term on the back of some position squaring ahead of today’s US mid-term elections. Sterling again led the way higher on hopes of a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations although there does not appear to be an awful lot behind today’s press headlines. Elsewhere the US$ is a bit lower against the Euro, which followed Sterling and comes about despite the EU Sentix missing expectations, as did the UK Services PMI. Late in the session, the Euro made new session highs after the Italian Minister of Economy and Finances said that he is working for compromise on the Italian budget.

Elsewhere, stocks are closing on their highs, albeit after a tight range, while WTI made it up to 64.10 before a late selloff before a late selloff into the close, to finish at 62.80, as the Iranian sanctions get underway.

US yields had a steady day although they gave back a little of Friday’s gains; US10Y @ 3.2%, US30Y @ 3.435%.

In terms of US data, the ISM Non-Mfg PMI beat expectations, as did both the Markit Services/Composite PMIs. Looking ahead, although the RBA Interest Rate Decision takes place today, no change is expected, and being Melbourne Cup Day there will be very few who will really take any notice at all. The real focus will be on the US Mid-Term Elections which are due to get under way later in the day, with the results due to come through on Wednesday during the Asian session. Other pieces of data that could create some waves will include the RBNZ Inflation Expectations, and then in Europe, the Services/Composite PMIs. WTI has been volatile recently and may react to an out-of-line API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory, while Kiwi traders will also be watching the Global Dairy Trade Index. Have a good day.

Other Economic data highlights will include:                                                                         

Tue: US Mid-Term Elections, UK BRC Retail Sales, RBNZ Inflation Expectations, RBA Interest Rate Decision/Statement,  German Factory Orders, EU Services/Composite PMIs, JOLTS, Global Dairy Trade Index, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1411
Res  1.1430  1.1455  1.1475
Sup  1.1400  1.1355  1.1380
USDJPY: 113.23
Res  113.45  113.75  114.00
Sup  112.95  112.75  112.50
GBPUSD: 1.3043
Res  1.3055  1.3090  1.3130
Sup  1.3020  1.2990  1.2950
USDCHF: 1.0040
Res  1.0055  1.0070  1.0095
Sup  1.0020  1.0000  0.9975
AUDUSD: 0.7214
Res  0.7220  0.7235  0.7260
Sup  0.7200  0.7180  0.7160
NZDUSD: 0.6671
Res  0.6680  0.6695  0.6715
Sup  0.6650  0.6630  0.6610
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2741
Res  2750  2765  2780
Sup  2730  2715  2700
DJ30.fs: 25450
Res  25500  25595  25685
Sup  25340  25215  25090
SPI200.fs: 5813
Res  5825  5850  5875
Sup  5800  5785  5765
XAUUSD: 1230
Res  1235  1240  1245
Sup  1225  1220  1215
XAGUSD: 14.64
Res  14.80  14.90  15.00
Sup  14.50  14.40  14.30
WTI.fs: 62.76
Res  63.50  64.15  64.65
Sup  62.55  61.90  61.00