13 Nov: Weekly outlook for the US$ index (DXY).

By | November 13, 2017

The Dollar Index (DXY) traded sideways last week and thus far it continues to hold on above the head/shoulder neckline (93.47).
As long as this continues, the near term outlook remains cautiously bullish although a break of the neckline, and also of the minor rising trend support level nearby, would suggest a dip towards the 100 DMA at 93.72, which would see EurUsd trading above 1.1700. At this stage, with the MACDs rolling over, it would seem a plausible outcome although the support at the 200 DMA should be strong.
The weekly charts remain supportive though and in the bigger picture I suspect that the longer term decline from the high at 103.82 has completed at 91.01 and that eventually the DXY will resume its rally, where the initial resistance is at 95.15 (7 Nov high), a break of which would then target the 38.2% Fibo retracement of 103.82 to 91.01 at 95.90, beyond which would then take a look at the 200 DMA (96.47) and eventually at the 50% and the 61.8% retracement levels at 97.41 and at 98.92 respectively.
Overall, the strategy of buying dips in the DXY (selling EurUsd rallies) remains unchanged although I would be nervous if we saw a daily close below 93.70.

Daily DXY

Weekly DXY