7 Dec: Forecast: Stocks/ Commodities.

By | December 7, 2017

 

S&P: 2629
The S&P is pretty much unchanged again today after having recovered from a dip to 2620
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Up – Possible topping formation. Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Despite the increasing risks of staying long, the long term uptrend currently remains intact although the short term momentum indicators and the dailies still appear to be trying to push for a deeper move into negative territory. Trying to pick the top of the stock market has been a graveyard for a long time now though so I prefer to remain sidelined.
Resistance Support
2675 Minor 2625 200 HMA
2670 Minor 2620 Session low
2664 4 Dec high     – all-time high 2615 Minor
2648 5 Dec high 2610 Minor
2634 Session high 2605 (23.6% of 2415/2665)

DJI: 24156
Ditto S+P
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
24600 Minor 24081 Session low
24550 Minor 23922 1 Dec low
24534 4 Dec high- all-time high 23850 Minor
24386 5 Dec high 23800 30 Nov low
24229 Session high 23750 27 Nov low


ASX SPI: 5965
The ASX has recovered from an early dip to 5942 to currently sit back in the middle of its recent range at 5975. More choppy trade looks likely today, with 6000 likely to provide resistance while good support lies at 5950 but a break of which could quickly lead to 5920 and 5900.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  While above 5950, I remain neutral. A downside break could see a move towards 5900/20 but while the weeklies point higher, buying dips towards 5900 may be a plan, with a tight SL placed under 5875. Above 6000 could see another run towards the 6040/50 highs although I don’t see it above 6000 today.
Resistance Support
6050 Minor 5960 Minor
6043/46 13 Nov high/9 Nov high 5942/48 Session low  /(23.6% of 5625/6046)
6018 4 Dec high 5929/27 20 Nov low/16 Nov low
5995 5 Dec high /200 HMA 5900 Minor
5975 Session high 5885 (38.2% of 5625/6046)


XAUUSD: 1264
Gold had another tight session above the critical 1260 support. More of the same looks likely although if the dollar continues to strengthen then we may see a more concerted test of the downside.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral – the short term momentum indicators seem to be turning a little lower but otherwise, the broad range-trade between 1260/95 seems set to remain intact. A sustained break of 1260 could see a move to 1250 and possibly to 1240. Leaving a stop entry at 1258 may be a plan.
Resistance Support
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1261/63 6 Oct low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)/200 DMA/ Rising trend support/Session low
1299 27 Nov high 1255 Minor
1289/1285 1 Dec high/100 DMA 1251 8 Aug low
1277 4 Dec high /5 Dec high 1242 26 July low /76.4% of 1205/1358
1269 Session high 1230 Minor


XAGUSD: 15.97
Silver had a tight session near 16.00 today but with the dailies looking heavy further downside seems likely in coming sessions.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral –Turning higher? Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look slightly positive on Thursday but the dailies are picking up increasing downside momentum so selling rallies is preferred, looking for an eventual return to the Fibo support at 15.90, below which there is only minor support at 15.60 ahead of the July low at 15.18.

Sell Silver @ 16.25. SL @ 16.70, TP @ 15.60

Resistance Support
         16.85 (61.8% of 17.38/15.92) 15.91 Session low
16.65 (50% of 17.38/15.92) 15.88 (76.4% of 15.18/18.21)
16.47 (38.2% of 17.38/15.92) 15.75 Minor
16.25 (23.6% of 17.38/15.92) 15.50 Minor
16.14 Session high 15.18 10 July low


WTI: 55.93
WTI settled lower on Wednesday after data showing crude stockpiles fell for the third straight week failed to offset a larger-than-expected build in gasoline supplies.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Down Daily Indicators: Turning lower Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  With the momentum indicators all aligning to point lower it would seem that oil is going to remain heavy for the time being. I prefer to remain neutral and look to buy dips for the medium term given that the weeklies look positive and an eventual test of 60.00 should not be ruled out. That is a long way over the horizon right now and selling rallies seems to be the plan.

Sell WTI @ 56.70. SL @ 57.70, TP @ 54.70

Resistance Support
58.90/95 200 WMA/27 Nov high 55.88 Session low /(23.6% of 45.56/58.95)
58.86 1 Dec high 55.70 Minor
58.30 4 Dec high 54.80 14 Nov high
57.89 5 Dec high 54.50 Rising trend support
56.40 Minor 53.85 (38.2% of 45.56/58.95)


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