7 June: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | June 7, 2019

It has been a choppy session for the FX market on Thursday, and ended with the dollar pretty much unchanged from the previous day’s levels. The stock markets have had their 3rd good day in a row on the back of increasing hopes of a US rate cut, and look as though they have further constructive price action ahead of them. Elsewhere is has been messy, although oil has recovered from the previous day’s lows due to a report that US tariffs on Mexico might be delayed.

EurUsd: The Euro had a choppy ride on Thursday following the ECB Meeting, initially spiking down to 1.1200 ahead of a sharp rally to take out the Wednesday high, topping out at 1.1307 and then chopping around for the rest of the day to leave the technical outlook unchanged. Currently sitting at the technical point, at 1.1275 (50% pivot of 1.1449/1.1106/100 DMA/descending trend resistance), the short term momentum indicators are mixed and suggest further choppy trade ahead. If so, on the downside, the initial support will again be seen at 1.1215 (55 DMA), a break of which opens the way to  1.1200 and to the minor Fibo levels at 1.1190 and 1.1160, ahead of a possible return to 1.1115 and the 23 May spike low at 1.1106. On the topside, resistance will be seen at the day’s peak of 1.1307, above which could see a run towards the 17 April high of 1.1323, which conveniently ties in with the 200 WMA, at 1.1340 but will only arrive if today’s NFP data is very weak, I suspect. Beyond there opens 1.1400 but not today I think.

US$Jpy: is at 108.40, after a tight 50 point range above 108.00, with more of the same looking likely ahead of today’s NFP, although note that the BOJ Governor Kuroda is speaking again today. On the topside, resistance will be seen at the session high of 108.55, beyond which, further gains would head towards 108.70 (minor) and then to 108.90 (200 HMA/23.6% of 112.39/108.70). Above here, 109.00/15 offers resistance, above which would run into 109.55 (38.2% of 112.39/108.70). On the downside, support will again be seen at 108.00/20 and then at 107.80. This seems unlikely to be seen today, but if wrong, the next target is seen at 107.50 (4 Jan low).

AudUsd:  The Aud had a tight range on Thursday, confined to 0.6961/94, and more of the same seems likely today while waiting on the US data although the domestic housing figures could create some activity. The short term momentum indicators mixed/neutral, so we probably should not expect too much and the technical levels remain unchanged. Support levels to watch will be at 0.6950/60 (100 HMA/38.2% of 0.6864/0.7006) and again at 0.6935/40 (200 HMA/50% pivot of 0.6864/0.7006). Below here may be a stretch but further levels to watch would be at 0.6915 (61.8% of 0.6864/0.7006) and 0.6900 (0.6897 = 76.4% of 0.6864/0.7006). A rally will find offers at 0.6985/95 and again at the Wednesday high of 0.7006. Beyond there would open the way to the 55 DMA at 0.7025, and then to the 50% pivot of 0.7205/0.6864 at 0.7035, above which could run towards the 100 DMA/ 61.8% of 0.7205/0.6864 at 0.7075, ahead of 0.7100 and possibly the 200 DMA (0.7125)

NzdUsd: The Kiwi was rangebound between 0.6611/43 on Thursday and currently sits in the middle, at 0.6625. The short term momentum indicators look slightly heavy but I suspect that the 24 hour range may continue to hold the price action for now. There is little to move the Kiwi today ahead of the NFP and it may be a quiet session, but 0.6600 (38.2% of 0.6495/0.6665) should provide decent support, if we see it, below which would allow for a run towards 0.6580 (50%) and possibly towards 0.6560 (38.2%). On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6650 (minor), ahead of the Wednesday spike high at 0.66650. The dailies remain positive, so above here, the 200 DMA is at 0.6705 and the 100 DMA is at 0.6735 which will provide decent resistance if we see it.


*Trade of the day: June 7, 2019; 8:49 AM(AET)                      

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1305. SL @ 1.1355, TP @ 1.1205

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1185. SL @ 1.1155, TP @ 1.1290

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7020. SL @ 0.7045, TP @ 0.6940

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6935. SL @ 0.6890, TP @ 0.7000

Buy US$Jpy @108.10. SL @ 107.75, TP @ 109.00

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6665. SL @ 0.6690, TP @ 0.6600

Buy NzdUsd @ 0.6580. SL @ 0.6545, TP @ 0.6650