7 Mar: Forecast: Stocks, Commodities

By | March 7, 2017

 

S+P: 2377

US stocks traded with a slightly heavy tone for much of the session but are recovering into the US close, leaving the outlook largely unchanged.

Technically, the dailies still point higher although they are looking increasingly toppish and may signal a deeper dip in the days ahead, while the 4 hour charts again suggest further downside momentum may be in store. A cautious stance is therefore warranted and I would stand aside, but selling rallies into the 2380/90, with a SL placed above 2400 may be a plan.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2410 Minor 2367 Session low
2305 Psychological 2360 (23.6% of 2227/2400)
2400 1 March high  /All time high 2350 Minor
2394 2 Mar high 2340 Minor
2381 Session high/3 Mar high 2334 (23.6% of 2227/2400)


DJI: 20965

Ditto S+P.  The daily momentum indicators seem to be in the process of rolling over, so selling into strength, with a SL paced tight above the 21159 all time high may be a plan.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
                                         Resistance Support
21300 Minor 20893 Session low
21250 Minor 20809 1 March low
21200 Minor 20790 (23.6% of 196078/21159)
21159 1 March high /All time high 20694 24 Feb low
21059 3 Mar high 20600 Minor


ASX SPI: 5721

The ASX has had a choppy session contained within a range of 5699/5735 while waiting on the outcome of today’s RBA decision.

The dailies still look a little heavy, suggesting some downside pressure  If so, the initial support will be seen at 5695/5700 and 5670/80, a break of which could see a run back towards the 1 March low of 5653. On the topside, if we take out Monday’s high of 5735, then 5750 could come into view, above which we could see the recent 5767 high ahead of the February high of 5778. Above here, look for a run towards the 5789, 9th Jan high, to 5800 and then to the May 2015 high at 5814. Overall, with the dailies still looking mildly negative I prefer to sell into strength for a medium term move lower, but would keep a tight SL, today placed above 5750.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly bearish
Resistance Support
5789 9 Jan high 5699/95 Session low/3 Mar low
5778 16 Feb high 5680 Minor
5767 3 Mar high 5670 Minor
5750 Minor 5653 1 March low
5735 3 Mar high 5621 (61.8% of 5526/5778)


GOLD: 1226

Gold has seen a steady drift lower through the session, falling from 1236 to 1224, although so far holding on above Friday’s low of 1222.

While the dailies look increasingly heavy, hinting that further medium term losses look possible, the short term momentum indicators look pretty neutral, suggesting a choppy day ahead, with direction likely to be decided by the moves seen in the dollar. On the topside, resistance will be seen at the session high (1236), above which could see further sellers in the 1240/50 area, so any upside progress, if we see it, is likely to be slow.  With the dailies looking to be tipping lower, a sterner test of 1220 would not surprise, below which would see further strong support in the 1200/10 area.

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly bearish
Resistance Support
1261/63 200 DMA / 28 Feb high 1224 Session low
1254 (76.4% of 1264/1223) 1222 3 Mar Low
1248 (61.6% of 1264/1223) 1211 100 DMA
1243 (50% of 1264/1223)/200 HMA 1206 3 Feb low
1238/36 (38.2% of 1264/) /Session high 1197 1 Feb low


SILVER: 17.78

As with Gold, Silver has seen a steady drift lower on Monday, falling from a high of 17.95 to a low of 17.70.

While the dailies seem to be rolling over, trading from the short side remain favoured, where minor support will be seen at around 17.70, ahead of the strong level at around 17.65. Below here would then look towards 17.40/50 but probably not today. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 18.00/05, which may be toppish today if we see it, but above which we could see a return to 18.20 and even towards the resistance seen at 18.45/50

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly bearish
Resistance Support
18.65 Minor 17.70 Session low
18.46/48 1 March high/27 Feb high 17.64 3 Mar low /Rising trend support
18.15 200 HMA 17.55 10 Feb low
18.05 200 DMA 17.38 (38.2% of 15.63/18.48)
17.95 Session high /200 DMA 17.24 3 Feb low


OIL (WTI): 53.20

WTMI has had another rangebound session (52.74/53.54) leaving the outlook unchanged

While the dailies are flat, suggesting further choppy trade ahead, the short term momentum indicators are now pointing a little higher  and hint that we could see a run back to the session high of 53.54 and possibly on to at 54.00, above which could revisit the recent 54.41 high, although this looks unlikely today. On the downside, support will be seen at 52.70 (session low) ahead of the 3 Mar low of 52.51. Further bids would arrive in the broad area of 52.20/51.70, below which would then allow for a return to 51.20 and possibly to 50.70. While it is so choppy I prefer to stay away.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
54.59 27 Feb high 52.51 3 Mar Low
54.41 1 March high 52.20 8 Feb low
54.00 Minor 51.70 Minor
53.75 Minor 51.20 8 Feb low
53.37 3 Mar high 50.69 10 Jan low