The Aud$ has been the centre of attraction again on Wednesday and it seems that this could continue again today, looking weak against both the US$ and also on the crosses against the Euro and also Gbp. Trading the Aud from the short side is favoured and I think it is possible that we could be headed towards 0.6800 against the US$ fairly shortly. The Australian January Retail Sales are coming up and could well act as the catalyst to send it on its way (exp +0.3%mm).
The US$ is mixed today and a cautious stance is required although the ECB Meeting could produce a dovish outlook, which will not help the Euro, so I prefer to trade that from the short side and to remain long of US$. As I said yesterday, with the daily DXY charts turning mildly higher, buying dips in the dollar is preferred and I suspect that EurUsd may soon be about to test the November low of 1.1215.
The metals still look heavy in the medium/longer and I like to remain short although the short-term momentum indicators do hint at the chance of a bounce so looking to sell the rally seems to be the plan.
US stocks seem to be turning down, so selling rallies is preferred, with a SL placed above the recent highs.
As for WTI, it looks to me as though we are in for further choppy trade between the 100 WMA (58.00) and the 200 WMA (52.00) in the days ahead.
Economic data highlights will include:
Thur: Australian Retail Sales, China Foreign Exchange Reserves, Japan Leading Economic Index, EU Q4 GDP, ECB Meeting/Interest Rate Decision, US Trade Balance (Jan), Consumer Credit Change
*Trade of the day: March 7, 2019; 10:13 AM(AET)
*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.
All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.
Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1235/1.1335 (SL 30 pips either side)
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7050. SL @ 0.7080, TP @ 0.6980
Sell Gold @ 1295. SL @ 1305, TP @ 1280
Sell US30 @ 25900. SL @ 26300, TP @ 25200