7 Nov: WTI up 3%. Gbp underpinned by more positive Brexit chat. US$ heavy on soft bond yields. RBA coming up

By | November 7, 2017

 

It has been a fairly slow start to the week, with the US$ trading a little lower by soft bond yields, and with Cable leading the way higher. The Euro is pretty much unchanged after recovering from a heavy start that saw it test the October lows. The main action has been in oil, where WT|I is up by around 3%, reaching its strongest level since July 2015, underpinned by Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, who has cemented his power over the weekend with an anti-corruption crackdown. Gold is up $9 oz as the political uncertainty in the Middle East fuelled some safe-haven demand. Stocks are mildly higher again, at yet new all-time highs, driven largely by the NASDAQ which continues to be underpinned by the large tech stocks.

Tuesday will get off to a busy start, with the RBA Interest Rate Decision leading the way, although no change is expected for the 15th month in a row. Given the rather look of the data that we are receiving in Australia, many more months of the same would not surprise. While the Labour market data remains underpinned, the CPI remaining sub-target and retail sales continue to contract, so don’t expect anything different from the RBA any time soon. In other data that may impact on the $AUD today, the AIG Performance of Construction Index and the China Foreign Exchange Reserves will be released. From then on the calendar goes rather quiet, with the German Industrial Production and EU Retail Sales the only real items on the agenda with little to come from the US; just the Consumer Credit Change for September. Elsewhere, Kiwi traders will want to look out for the Global Dairy Trade Index (midday London), while WTI traders will look to the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory for guidance.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1610
Res  1.1625  1.1645  1.1675
Sup  1.1575  1.1550  1.1520
USDJPY: 113.75
Res  114.00  114.45  114.75
Sup  113.55  113.30  112.95
GBPUSD: 1.3173
Res  1.3180  1.3215  1.3250
Sup  1.3150  1.3125  1.3095
USDCHF: 0.9975
Res  1.0000  1.0025  1.0040
Sup  0.9945  0.9920  0.9890
AUDUSD: 0.7687
Res  0.7700  0.7715  0.7730
Sup  0.7665  0.7640  0.7625
NZDUSD: 0.6929
Res  0.6940  0.6950  0.6970
Sup  0.6895  0.6875  0.6850
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2587
Res  2590  2600  2610
Sup  2580  2575  2570
DJI: 23477
Res  23500  23550  23600
Sup  23435  23405  23350
ASX SPI: 5959
Res  5960  5975  6000
Sup  5945  5935  5920
XAUUSD: 1281
Res  1285  1290  1295
Sup  1275  1270  1265
XAGUSD: 17.23
Res  17.30  17.45  17.60
Sup  17.00  16.90  16.75
WTI: 57.32
Res  58.00  58.50  59.00
Sup  57.00  56.25  55.60