8 Aug: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

By | August 8, 2017


S&P: 2477
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
No change in view. The S+P traded another tight 2471/77 range on Monday.

The daily momentum indicators neutral and give little hint either way despite the DJI making consecutive new highs. Further gains would seem possible in the days ahead, although the short term charts are flat on Tuesday so another rangebound session could lie ahead and progress, if any, may be slow.

As before, I prefer to remain sidelined at these levels.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Resistance Support
2490 Minor 2471 Session low
2485 Minor 2467 Friday low
2480 Minor 2461 28 July low
2480 27 July high  -All-time high 2457 19 July low
2477 Friday high /Session high 2447 18 July low/(23.6% of 2345/2475)

DJI: 22061
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
The DJI CFD reached yet another new all time high on Monday of 22079 (22018/22079) and closed nearby, suggesting that the trend will continue although the short term momentum indicators are showing increasing bearish divergence. As we said before, some caution is warranted on the topside as the S+P will need to play catch-up in order for the uptrend to continue.  I prefer to remain on the sidelines.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral

Resistance Support
22250 Minor 21955 Friday low
22200 Minor 21858 1 Aug low
22150 Minor 21682 28 July low
22100 Minor 21631 27 July low
22079 Session high   – all-time high 21550 Rising trend support

ASX SPI: 5722
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
The choppy, sideways trade continues – Monday trading 5690/4722.

As we said before, the momentum indicators still look pretty neutral and the chart looks a complete mess so I would not be too involved right now. More of the same looks likely and the wide range of 5600/5765 look set to cover it in the medium term. In the short term, the 4 hour charts suggest a test of the session highs, possibly heading back to the resistance seen at the 100 DMA.

Resistance Support
5777 29 June low 5690 Session low
5760 100 DMA 5665 200 DMA
5747 4 July high 5641 Friday low/3 Aug low
5727 1 Aug high 5630 28 July low
5722 Session high 5592 24 July low/(38.2% of 5029/5944)

XAUUSD: 1258
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Gold has had a rangebound session (1255/59) leaving the outlook unchanged

Further losses still look possible, and on the downside good support lies right here at 1250/55, which may hold it up for a while a break of which would allow a move to and then at 1243/45 and again at 1235.

On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1265 and again at 1270 although I don’t think we see it again today. If wrong, the descending trend resistance at 1280 should provide a decent cap.

Preferred Strategy: Further losses look likely, so selling rallies, with a SL placed above 1265, if favoured.

Resistance Support
1296 6 June high 1257/55/52 (23.6% of 1205/1270) /Session low / Rising trend support/ 100 DMA
1280 Descending trend resistance /14 June high 1245/43 (38.2% of 1205/1270)/26 July low
1275 (76.4% of 1295/1208) 1237 (50% of 1205/1270)
1270 Friday high 1229 (61.8% of 1205/1270)
1260 Session high 1220 (76.4% of 1205/1270)

XAGUSD: 16.27
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Silver has had a rangebound session (16.13/30) leaving the outlook unchanged

The 4 hour momentum indicators still point lower, and on the downside the initial support arrives at the session low, a break of which could quickly lead back towards 16.00/05, and then below 16.00, to 15.80/85.

The dailies are fairly flat on Tuesday, so it could be that we continue to chop around near current levels. If we do see a squeeze higher, above the session high of 16.30, further resistance would arrive at 16.45/50, above which could head back towards 16.70 although I don’t think we get there today.

Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Possible sell rallies near 16.50 with a SL above 16.70.

Resistance Support
17.00 100 DMA 16.12 Session low
16.90 (50% of 18.65/15.18)/29 June high 16.02 (50% of 15.18/16.87)
16.70 3 Aug high 15.83 (61.8% of 15.18/16.87)
16.50 Minor 15.60 (76.4% of 15.18/16.87)
16.30 Session high 15.50 Minor

WTI: 49.29
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
WTI ended up pretty much unchanged on Monday, having earlier headed lower amid renewed oversupply jitters following an increase in Libyan production. It later rallied ad trades now await the result of the meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members IN Abu-Dhabi

Technically, the short term momentum indicators look rather flat on Tuesday and we could well just chop around near current levels.

The dailies look a little toppish though, and on the downside, back below 49.00 buyers should arrive at around 48.35/50 ahead of 47.85, below which, there is little to support the price until 47.15.

On the topside, the 200 DMA will act as a magnate ahead of the 3 Aug high of 49.93. Beyond that could see a return to the recent high at 50.40 and then to 50.80 although this seems unlikely today

Preferred Strategy: Neutral.

Resistance Support
50.74 Descending trend resistance 49.00 200 HMA
50.40 1 Aug high 48.51/48 Session low /Friday low
50.20 (61.8% of 55.21/42.03) 48.40/34 (23.6% of 42.02/50.40)/1 Aug low
49.68 Session high 47.85/92 26 July low /100 DMA
49.40 200 DMA 47.15 (23.6% of 42.02/50.40)