8 Dec: US stocks soar to new all-time highs. Currency markets mostly steady ahead of today’s ECB meeting.

By | December 8, 2016

The dollar is mixed on Wednesday, with the Euro treading water ahead of the upcoming ECB Meeting. Sterling was the big mover of the day, falling sharply on worse than expected Manufacturing/Industrial Production data and not helped by the cautious outlook over Brexit, with the High Court Appeal still being heard. Stocks broke new ground,in heading to new-all time highs, overcoming a selloff in the health-care sector that was spurred by Donald Trump’s comments that he will push drug costs lower.

The focus today will be on the ECB Interest Rate Decision and then on Mario Draghi’s Press Conference. No change to policy is expected although an extension of the QE programme is a possibility. The Japanese Q3 GDP figure will be released in Asian trade, ahead of the Australian Trade Balance, China Trade Balance, and Chinese Foreign Direct Investment. It will be a very quiet US session in terms of data, with just the Jobless Claims due for release.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0760
Res  1.0770  1.0795  1.0820
Sup  1.0735  1.0700  1.0660
USDJPY: 113.80
Res  114.20  114.60  114.85
Sup  113.65  113.35  113.00
GBPUSD: 1.2619
Res  1.2640  1.2670  1.2700
Sup  1.2600  1.2570  1.2550
USDCHF: 1.0072
Res  1.0115  1.0140  1.0180
Sup  1.0050  1.0010  0.9985
AUDUSD: 0.7479
Res  0.7485  0.7500  0.7520
Sup  0.7455  0.7440  0.7415
NZDUSD: 0.7157
Res  0.7165  0.7185  0.7200
Sup  0.7135  0.7115  0.7100
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2235
Res  2236  2240  2250
Sup  2220  2210  2200
DJI: 19511
Res  19550  19600  19650
Sup  19450  19400  19350
ASX SPI: 5525
Res  5530  5550  5570
Sup  5512  5500  5476
GOLD: 1175
Res  1180  1188  1198
Sup  1160  1150  1140
SILVER: 17.15
Res  17.25  17.50  17.70
Sup  17.00  16.85  16.70
OIL (WTI): 49.96
Res  50.70  51.15  51.60
Sup  49.70  49.15  48.50

 

Indices/commodities
S&P Futures 2235
US stocks stormed to new all-time highs on Wednesday, despite a fall in the health-care sector, which tumbled after Donald Trump threatened to cut drug prices.

With blue sky ahead of us finding technical levels is tricky, but as projections go, the nearby target is at 2236 (100% of the 1980/2191, from 2026). The support levels to watch are now at  2220, 2210 and 2200.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Neutral

 

                                         Resistance Support
2255 Minor 2220 Minor
2250 Minor 2210 Minor
2245 Minor 2200 Minor
2240 Minor 2190 Minor
2234/36 All time – Session high/Fibo projection 2185 (23.6% of 2028/2234)
DJI Futures 19511
Ditto S+P. The DJI is running higher at the end of the session having now traded up to 19537. The momentum indicators generally look positive and further gains would not surprise.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Neutral

 

Resistance Support
19700 Minor 19350 Minor.
19650 Minor 19270 Minor
19600 Minor 19217 Session low
19550 Minor 19150 200 HMA
19537 Session high/All-time high 19080 5 Dec low
ASX SPI 5525
The ASX has enjoyed the ride in US stocks and has managed to break back above 5500 for the first time in a couple of weeks.

The daily momentum indicators remain fairly neutral but the short term charts look positive, so a run towards the August high of 5568 seems possible which, if seen, should be strong resistance but beyond which could see a run to 5600 and above, and then we could then see a run towards the August 2015 high at 5671.

On the downside, back below 5500 could then see a run back towards 5470 although this looks unlikely. If wrong, then below here could see a run towards the session low of 5447 and then to the 6 Dec low of 5422.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Neutral

 

Resistance Support
5600 Minor 5500 Minor
5568 1 Aug high 5480 Minor
5540 Minor 5466 200 HMA
5527 25 Nov high 5422 6 Dec low
5521 Session high 5410 (23.6% of 5029/5227)
GOLD 1175
Gold has again had a rangebound session (1165/80) leaving the outlook unchanged,

Another downside test would again find bids above 1160 and at the 1157 recent lows, but below which there is little to hold the price up until 1120. On the topside, as before, resistance will be seen at 1180, at the 5 Dec 1188 high and then again in the 1195/1200 area although this looks unlikely to be seen for a while. Given that the weeklies point lower I still prefer to trade strategically from the short side although the dailies may be looking to find a near term base, suggesting another rangebound session ahead, possibly heading a bit higher, in line with the move seen in Silver..

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Prefer to sell rallies

 

Resistance Support
1210 Minor 1166 6 Dec low
1199 (23.6% of 1337/1157) 1157/5 Dec low 4 Feb low
1197 28 Nov high 1140 Minor
1188 5 Dec high 1130 Minor
1180 Session high 1122 (76.4% of 1046/1375)
SILVER 17.15
Silver finally saw the break of 17.85/90 that we have been waiting for and headed quickly up to a high of 17.23. Resistance lies at the session highs but with the momentum indicators pointing higher a break could see a run towards 17.60 and then possibly on towards 17.90, Bids should now be seen on dips towards 17.00 and again at 16.85 although this looks unlikely to be seen again for a while. If wrong, below here could then head back to Monday’s low of 16.48 a break of which could see another test of the 2 Dec low of 16.31. Below that would eventually open the way to the minor double bottom at 16.16 and possibly 16.00. Buying dips seems to be the plan over the next couple of days.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Neutral

 

Resistance Support
17.90 (61.8% of 18.98/16. 17) 16.68 6 Dec low
17.75 Minor 16.48 5 Dec low
17.57 (50% of 18.98/16. 17) 16.31 2 Dec Low
17.40 14 Nov high 16.16 25 Nov Low/23 Nov low
17.23 (38.2% of 18.98/16. 17)/Session high 15.81 1 June low
OIL (WTI) 49.96
Despite the much larger than expected inventory drawdown on Wednesday  (2.389 million barrels vs expected 1.032 million) WTI has headed back below 50.00 pb and is finishing the session towards its lows.

With the short term momentum indicators looking negative, further losses seem possible, and below 49.70 could see a run towards 49.00 and then to 48.50, which should be decent support. On the topside, we need to regain 50.00, above which could see a run towards 50.70 and possibly to the session high of 51.17. Overall, further downside probes seem likely. Don’t forget that OPEC & non-OPEC countries will meet on December 10 in Vienna.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Neutral

 

Resistance Support
53.52 9 July 2015 high 49.80 Session low
53.00 Minor 49.15 Minor
52.38 5 Dec high 48.55 (38.2% of 42.19/52.38)
51.57 6 Dec high 48.00 Minor
51.17 Session high 47.60 Minor

EURUSD: 1.0760
The Euro is slightly stronger on Wednesday ahead of the ECB Meeting although the range has been narrow, leaving the outlook unchanged.

The short term momentum indicators are mixed as we await today’s ECB Meeting with speculation growing the QE programme is going to be extended. The dailies still point higher though, suggesting that we could see another squeeze towards1.0800, above which decent resistance lies in the 1.0800/20 area, but beyond this could see a run towards 1.0900, which again should be strong but above which could open the way to 1.1000.

The downside will see bids at the various minor Fibo levels (1.0685, 1.0615, and 1.0575) of Monday’s spike higher from the low of 1.0504. Further out, below 1.0500 would eventually open the way to the March 2013 low at 1.0461, beneath which there is very little to hold the Euro up until we reach almost to parity (1.0070=61.8% of 0.8225(Oct 2000 low)/1.6037(July 2008 high)), with minor levels ahead of that seen as per the table below.

While the daily momentum indicators look positive, I still prefer to sell into strength.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Prefer to sell rallies

 

Resistance Support
1.0855 Minor 1.0697 6 Dec low
1.0816 15 Nov high 1.0685 (38.2% of 1.0504/1.0796)
1.0806 (38.2% of 1.1300/1.0505) 1.0615 (61.8% of 1.0504/1.0796)
1.0796 5 Dec high 1.0575 (76.4% of 1.0504/1.0796)
1.0767 Session high 1.0504 5 Dec low

Economic data highlights will include:

ECB Interest Rate Decision, Statement, Press Conference, US Jobless Claims

Meta Trader – AxiTrader
EURUSD: 4 Hour

Euro


USDJPY: 113.80
US$Jpy has had a choppy, rangebound session (113.40/114.40) leaving the outlook unchanged

The short term momentum indicators are once again fairly flat so another rangebound session looks possible although, as before, the daily charts remain at overbought extremes so further corrections would not surprise. The initial support will again be seen at the session low of 113.40, below which, minor support will arrive at 113.20 and then again at 113.00 and at the 112.85 5 Dec low, but below which there are only minor support levels below this until 112.00.

On the topside sellers, will be seen at the session high of 114.40 and then at 114.60, at the 5 Dec high of 114.76 and at the 114.82 trend high. Above that, there is good option protection ahead of 115.00 but above which there is little to stop the dollar heading on to 115.50/60. Further out, a break of this level could then see a run towards 116.00 and even to 117.80 (76.4% of 121.05/98.94). For the time being, trading cautiously from the short side, selling into rallies above 114.00 seems to be the near term plan but further out, heading into 2017, I suspect that we have further dollar strength ahead of us.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Neutral – Prefer to buy dips

 

Resistance Support
115.00 Psychological 113.40 Session low200 HMA
114.82 2 Dec high 113.20 Minor
114.75 5 Dec high 113.00 Minor
114.60 100 DMA 112.86 5 Dec low
114.39 Session high 112.50 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

Q3 GDP, Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment, Current Account, Trade Balance, Eco Watchers Survey

Meta Trader – AxiTrader
USDJPY: 4 Hour

Euro


GBPUSD: 1.2619
Cable took a hit following the release of the Manufacturing/Industrial Production data on Wednesday (Industrial production dropped -1.3% mm, -1.1% yy v expectation of 0.2% mm, 0.5% yy. Manufacturing production -0.9% mm, -0.4% yy, vs consensus of 0.2% mm, 0.8% yy).

While the daily charts still look mildly positive, the 4 hour momentum indicators point lower so a cautious stance is required ahead of the ECB Meeting. If the dailies are correct, then another rally back towards/above 1.2700 would see minor resistance at 1.2740 ahead of the 1.2774 trend high, beyond which, further sellers will arrive at the 100 DMA at 1.2785.  On the downside, back below 1.2600 could see us back at the session low of 1.2570, beneath which would test minor Fibo support at 1.2550 but a break of which then sees little support until 1.2480. Buying dips remains the overall theme as long as the dailies remain constructive, while being aware of Brexit headlines coming from the courts.

24 Hour: Neutral – Mildly bearish Medium term: Prefer to buy dips

 

Resistance Support
1.2774 6 Dec high 1.2570 Session low/2 Dec Low/200 HMA
1.2740 Minor 1.2548 (23.6% of 1.1821/1.2774)
1.2700 Minor 1.2500 Minor
1.2665 100 HMA 1.2480 Rising trend support
1.2640 Minor 1.2410 (38.2% of 1.1821/1.2774)

Economic data highlights will include:

UK High Court Brexit Appeal Continues

Meta Trader – AxiTrader
GBPUSD: 4 Hour

Euro


USDCHF: 1.0072
US$Chf has had a rangebound session (1.0065/1.0109) leaving the outlook unchanged

A cautious stance is required and on the downside, the 6 Dec low at 1.0049 will provide decent support, below which, a test of parity would possible. Under there could see a run towards 0.9950/55 but seems unlikely. If the dollar continues to head higher, then beyond the 1.0100/10 could see a move to 1.0140 and to the 5 Dec high at 1.0181. With the weekly charts still looking positive, we could eventually be in for a sterner test of 1.0200, beyond which could then head on to 1.0250 and to 1.0300/25 at some stage.  For the time being the dollar looks heavy, although I still think that eventually we are going to rebound for another test of the trend highs, albeit probably not today.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Neutral – Prefer to buy dips

                                                                

Resistance Support
1.0223 2 Feb high 1.0065 Session low
1.0204 30 Nov high 1.0048  (23.6% of 0.9548/1.0204)/6 Dec low
1.0181 5 Dec high 1.0000 Psychological
1.0140 200 HMA 0.9955  (38.2% of 0.9548/1.0204)
1.0115 6 Dec high 0.9925 Minor
Meta Trader – AxiTrader
USDCHF: 4 Hour

Euro


AUDUSD: 0.7479
The Aud has largely withstood the poor GDP outcome yesterday and is at close to session highs of 0.7482.

Technically, the momentum indicators are leaning to the topside, and if we manage to move above 0.7480/852, good sellers will then arrive at 0.7495/7500 and then at 0.7520, which should be strong (200 DMA), but a break of which there is then not too much to stop it heading on towards 0.7545/50. I don’t really see it there today and would prefer to sell into any strength on approach, with a SL place above 0.7560. On the downside, minor support now lies at 0.7440/50 and again at the session low of 0.7415 and then at 0.7400, a break of which could then head back to the recent support at 0.7360/70. Under there could then see a move towards 0.7335 and then to 0.7300/10 although this looks over the horizon in the near term.  Watch out for the local and the China Trade Balance, both due today.

24 Hour: Neutral 24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies.

 

Resistance Support
0.7570 16 Nov high 0.7440 Minor
0.7542 50% pivot of 0.7777/0.7310 0.7415/11 Session low/5 Dec low
0.7522 200 DMA 0.7400 2 Dec Low
0.7496/97 29/30 Nov high/5 Dec high 0.7363/61 24 Nov low/22 Nov low
0.7482 Session high 0.7345 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

Australian Trade Balance, China Trade Balance, Foreign Direct Investment

Meta Trader – AxiTrader
AUDUSD: 4 Hour

Euro


NZDUSD: 0.7157
The Kiwi is back near trend highs after having traded a range of 0.7100/67 on Wednesday, mostly with a mildly bid tone.

While the daily momentum indicators look mildly constructive the short term charts still look rather flat, so another choppy session may lie ahead, largely contained within the 0.7100/0.7200 range. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.7170 and again at  0.7185, a break of which could see a move to 0.7200+, potentially towards 0.7200, although probably not today

On the downside, buyers will again be seen at 0.7120 and at 0.7100, below which would find buyers at 0.7085/90 and at the 5 Dec lows around 0.7070. Under there, look for another run towards 0.7035, where the 200 DMA previously propped it up.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium term: Prefer to sell rallies

 

Resistance Support
0.7236 (61.8% of 0.7400/0.6983) 0.7120 Minor
0.7225 Minor 0.7093 5 Dec low
0.7200 Minor 0.7068 5 Dec low
0.7185 (50% of 0.7400/0.6983)/100 DMA 0.7043 2 Dec low
0.7166 Session high 0.7035 200 DMA

Economic data highlights will include:

RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speech.

Meta Trader – AxiTrader
NZDUSD: 4 Hour

Euro

The post 8 Dec: US stocks soar to new all-time highs. Currency markets mostly steady ahead of today’s ECB meeting. appeared first on FX Charts Daily.