8 Jan: Forecast: Commodities/Stock Indices + trade ideas

By | January 8, 2018

 

S&P: 2742
The S&P is again at new all-time highs of 2742 at the end of the week, rallying strongly into Friday’s close and seems set for further gains in the days ahead. With the momentum indicators now generally aligned to the topside, a continuation towards 2750+ may be on the cards.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  Despite the increasing risks of staying long, the long term uptrend currently remains intact and continuing to buy dips seems to be the plan. Leave a SL below 2715. I prefer to stand aside.
Resistance Support
2760 Minor 2723 Friday low
2755 Minor 2720 3 Jan low
2750 Minor 2715 Minor
2745 Minor 2710 Minor
2742 5 Jan high – all-time high. 2700 Minor


DJI: 25280
Ditto S+P.  Leave a SL below 25100.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Up Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:   Buy dips?
Resistance Support
25450 Minor 25056 Friday low
25400 Minor 24850 Minor
25350 Minor 24715 2 Jan low
25300 Minor 24667 29 Dec low
25280 Friday high – all-time high 24536 15 Dec low


ASX SPI: 6095
The ASX ended the week higher, at 6095 – last seen in Dec 2007 (!), and with the longer term charts (weekly/monthly) generally pointing higher it looks as though further gains do lie ahead.  The dailies are also trying to turn higher but without conviction so at this stage a cautious stance is required, but buying dips seems the way to go.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower Daily Indicators: Neutral – Turning higher? Weekly Indicators:  Up
Preferred Strategy:  With the momentum indicators possibly looking mildly constructive, a sterner test of the December 2007 low of 6102 now seems to be on the cards (Monthly Chart – below).  Beyond there, there is little to stop it heading to 6200 and then to 6300/30. That remains some way off and we may see a 6080/6120 range today, with further bids at 6050 although this seems unlikely to be bothered.
Resistance Support
6180 Minor 6030 200 HMA/100 HMA
6150 Minor 6013 3 Jan low
6120 Minor 6000 Minor
6102 Dec 2007 low 5986 2 Jan low
6096 Friday high 5975 Minor


XAUUSD: 1319
Gold is consolidating in the 1305/25 range right now, but with the dailies pointing higher, a test of 1330/40 would not surprise in the days ahead.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look inconclusive and a cautious stance is required on Monday. Good support lies at 1300/10 while offers are evident above 1330, so use this as a range guide today but probably looking to buy dips and to trade from the long side over the next few days.

Buy Gold @ 1305. SL @ 1295, TP @ 1330

Resistance Support
1340 11 Sept high 1307 Friday low
1334 15 Sept high 1305 (23.6% of 1236/1326)
1329 (76.4% of 1357/1236) 1291 (38.2% of 1236/1326) / 100 DMA
1326 4 Jan high 1277 (50% of 1236/1326)
1322 Friday high 1271 (61.8% of 1236/1326)/ 200 DMA


XAGUSD: 17.20
As with Gold, Silver is consolidating its recent strong rally, on Friday as it continues to range trade within the 17.00/25 band.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral –Turning lower. Daily Indicators: Turning higher Weekly Indicators:  Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators look neutral to mildly-negative but the dailies remain constructive so the overall theme of buying dips seems to remain in play. We could see a dip back to 16.95/17.00 but and playing form the long side is currently preferred while risk sentiment remains positive, looking for a move towards 17.40/50.

Buy Silver @ 17.00 SL @ 16.85, TP @ 17.45

Resistance Support
17.65 Minor 17.10 Friday low
17.50 Minor 16.90/93 100 DMA/200 DMA /2 Jan low
17.40 Minor 16.88 (23.6% of 15.65/17.28)
17.20/24 100 WMA/3 Jan high 16.65 (38.2% of 15.65/17.28) / 200 HMA
17.11 200 WMA 16.45 (50% of 15.65/17.28)


WTI: 61.54
WTI settled Friday at 61.55, just below Thursday’s 3 ½ year high of 62.18 but looking positive for further gains in the days ahead.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower. Daily Indicators: Up Weekly Indicators:  Turning higher
Preferred Strategy:  While retaining an bullish stance, looking for an eventual run towards 65.00, the short term momentum indicators suggest that we may see a bit of a dip in the near term, possibly looking towards 61.00/60.50, which if seen may provide a decent buying opportunity.

Buy WTI @ 60.80 SL @ 60.20, TP @ 62.55

Resistance Support
64.50 Minor 61.00 Minor
63.70 Minor 60.26 3 Jan low
63.00 Minor 59.25 Minor
62.55 May 2015 high 58.50 Minor
62.18 4 Jan high 57.80 200 WMA