8 Oct: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | October 8, 2019

It has been a choppy, sideways start to the week and there is not much inspiration to be found on the trend table today, so a generally cautious stance is required.

There is some Yen weakness to be seen in the short term momentum indicators and this may continue although that depends on some positive risk headlines, so I would not be looking for too much direction form the Yen pairs.

The Aud$ looks a little heavy in the short term although the bias is not strong and the medium term indicators are not hinting at any directional movement.

Elsewhere, a sideway session looks likely – at least until Jerome Powell speaks, late in the NY session, so maybe choosing a range and trading that will be the way to go.


*Trade of the day: October 8, 2019; 7:22 AM(AET)                           

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1010. SL @ 1.1030, TP @ 1.0920

Buy EurUsd @ 1.0930. SL @ 1.0890, TP @ 1.0990

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6760. SL @ 0.6785, TP @ 0.6690

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6685. SL @ 0.6650, TP @ 0.6745

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6300. SL @ 0.6325, TP @ 0.6240


EurUsd:  The Euro has had a choppy day but has been confined to a tight range at similar levels to the end of the week and leaves the outlook unchanged, with a neutral bias. The pair currently sits at 1.0970, well above the 2 ½ year low at 1.0879 but unable to overcome stiff resistance at 1.1000, and while the short term momentum indicators look mixed/neutral, it would seem that 1.0940/1.1000 may again cover it. If wrong, a break 1.0900 would then open the way back to the 1.0879 low below which would allow a run towards the next target at 1.0860(76.4% of 1.0340/1.2555), Under here, the 23 April 2015 low is at 1.0820, a break of which will find a weekly chart gap that would take us to 1.0775. On the topside, resistance is strong at 1.1000/03 (Session high/23.6% of 1.1411/1.0879). An upside break would then allow for a run towards 1.1040/50 and then possibly to the September 18/19 highs at 1.1072/75. Trading a range of 1.0940/1.1010 may be the idea today.


US$Jpy:  The dollar continues to recover from Friday’s post NFP dip to 106.47, and a buying spree in Monday’s US session has seen the pair squeeze sharply higher, to reach 107.45 before settling at 107.30. While the dailies and weeklies are showing little directional bias, the short term momentum indicators do look positive, so buying dips may be the plan today. If we do see further upside progress, good resistance is going to be found right ahead, at 107.45/50 (Session high/200 HMA/50% pivot of 108.46/106.47) but above which could open the way to 107.70 (61.8%/100 DMA), to 108.00(76.4%) and possibly back to the 108.46, 1 Oct high. On the downside, support will be seen at 107.00, ahead of 107.75 and 107.60 (both minor) and the 106.47 Friday low. Look for 107.00/107.65 to cover it today.


AudUsd:  The Aud$  seems to have topped out on Friday at 0.6773, and now back below the 200 HMA (0.6740) it is currently sitting on the 100 HMA (0.6730) and looking a little heavy heading into Tuesday trade. A break of 0.6730 could see a drift back towards 0.6700, below which would allow for a run back towards the 0.6670 lows.  A break of this would find minor support at 0.6660, but under that would open the way to 0.6600, and possibly to 0.6500 although that remains some way off. Further out, the next major Fibo support level is not seen until 0.6250 (76.4% of 0.4773 (April 2001)/1.1082 (July 2011). On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6740/50 ahead of 0.6770/75 although that looks safe today. Further offers would arrive at 0.6795/0.6805 ahead of the Fibo level at 0.6828(38.2% of 0.7081/0.6770) 0.6850 (minor) and 0.6876 (50%). It may be a quiet session but I prefer the downside today , and while looking to sell rallies, 0.6700/50 may cover it.


NzdUsd: The Kiwi is heavy on Tuesday, and having fallen from a high of 0.6320 it is now sitting just above the low of 0.6282. Further losses would open the way for a drop towards 0.6255/60 and then to 0.6220 and possible back to the 0.6203, 4 year low. On a break of 0.6200, there is little to hold the Kiwi up , but more distant bids would arrive at the August 2015 low at 0.6125, which could be where we are headed if/when the RBNZ cut rates again, which seems highly likely. If we get back above 0.6300, look for further sellers to arrive at 0.6320 (minor), at 0.6337 (4 Oct high) and then at 0.6348 (25 Sept high) ahead of 0.6355 (61.8% of 0.6449/0.6203). Use 0.6250/0.6310 as a guide today, with the preference to sell rallies for the 24 hour trade.