16 March: US$ higher, stocks mixed. EU CPI in focus on Friday.

By | March 16, 2018

 

The US$ is higher today after a string of strong secondary data lent it support, with Import Prices, Jobless Claims, Empire Manufacturing all better than expected. Comments from US trade adviser, Robert Navarro, playing down the prospects of a trade war also underpinned both the dollar and to the US stock Indices, which have been rangebound and are mixed at the end of the session. The metals are lower, care of the stronger dollar, while WTI is slightly higher.

In terms of the data from the US, the weekly initial jobless claims dropped -4k to 22k, in line with expectation while the continuing claims rose by 4k to 1.879mio. The NY Empire state manufacturing index rose sharply to 22.5, up from 13.1, and beat expectation of 15.0. On the other side of the coin, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey dropped to 22.3, down from 25.8 and missed expectation of 23.0. Earlier in the day, the Chf showed no reaction to the SNB decision to leave rates on hold.

The key focus on Friday will be the EU CPI (exp 0.2%mm, 1.2%yy; Core, exp 0.3% mm, 1.2%yy) although ahead of that we get the NZ Business PMI, a speech from the RBA’s Debelle and the monthly Japanese Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production figures. From the US, the Housing Starts and Building Permits for February are due, along with the Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – if these are generally solid, expect another run higher for the US$. Have a good weekend.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2301
Res  1.2335  1.2360  1.2385
Sup  1.2290  1.2270  1.2250
USDJPY: 106.41
Res  106.50  106.70  107.05
Sup  106.05  105.80  105.50
GBPUSD: 1.3932
Res  1.3965  1.3995  1.4030
Sup  1.3920  1.3900  1.3875
USDCHF: 0.9519
Res  0.9535  0.9560  0.9580
Sup  0.9500  0.9470  0.9450
AUDUSD: 0.7797
Res  0.7830  0.7850  0.7870
Sup  0.7790  0.7770  0.7750
NZDUSD: 0.7274
Res  0.7300  0.7325  0.7355
Sup  0.7265  0.7245  0.7220
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2755
Res  2765  2785  2800
Sup  2745  2730  2715
DJI: 24919
Res  25000  25080  25175
Sup  24800  24685  24575
ASX SPI: 5925
Res  5940  5960  5980
Sup  5910  5890  5865
XAUUSD: 1316
Res  1325  1330  1335
Sup  1310  1305  1300
XAGUSD: 16.39
Res  16.50  16.60  16.70
Sup  16.35  16.25  16.15
WTI: 61.19
Res  61.55  62.35  63.25
Sup  60.60  59.70  59.00