3 May: Fed stay on hold. US$ firm, stocks lower. EU CPI in focus today. US Jobs data tomorrow.

By | May 3, 2018

 

After some choppy trade, when the Fed did as expected and left interest rates unchanged, the US$ has continued its rally into the end of the session while US stocks  have fallen by around 0.75% because traders remain concerned over the worsening trade relations between the US and China. The Fed unanimously decided to keep its lending rate in a target range of between 1.5% and 1.7%, while expressing a confident economic outlook, stating that activity had expanded at a moderate rate and that inflation was close to its 2% target. The Fed is expected to increase rates in June.

In other data, earlier in the session the EU GDP growth slowed to 0.4% qq in Q1, while the EU unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.5% in March, staying at the lowest level since December 2008. Both figures were in line with expectation.  The UK PMI construction rose to 52.5 in April, up from 47.0 and beat expectation of 50.5. In the US, the US ADP private sector employment rose 204k in April, slightly above expectation of 200k and comes ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs data.

Thursday will reflect on the FOMC decision while also looking forward to tomorrow’s US employment data but we also get the see the Australian Services PMI, New Home Sales and Building Permits. Europe will focus on the EU CPI (exp1.4%yy, Core; 1.1%) and PPI. while the US will focus on the Trade Balance, Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg PMI and the Markit Services/Composite PMIs. Japan Holiday.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1954
Res  1.1975  1.2000  1.2025
Sup  1.1935  1.1910  1.1890
USDJPY: 109.83
Res  110.00  110.50  110.25
Sup  109.65  109.45  109.25
GBPUSD: 1.3575
Res  1.3600  1.3630  1.3665
Sup  1.3555  1.3520  1.3455
USDCHF: 0.9984
Res  1.0000  1.0035  1.0065
Sup  0.9970  0.9950  0.9935
AUDUSD: 0.7494
Res  0.7510  0.7535  0.7555
Sup  0.7470  0.7450  0.7425
NZDUSD: 0.6996
Res  0.7010  0.7030  0.7060
Sup  0.6985  0.6965  0.6950
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2625
Res  2645.00  2670  2690
Sup  2610.00  2585  2560
DJ30: 23808
Res  23990  24135  24325
Sup  23695  23535  23310
SPI200: 6047
Res  6070  6085  6100
Sup  6035  6020  6000
XAUUSD: 1305
Res  1315  1320  1325
Sup  1300  1295  1290
XAGUSD: 16.36
Res  16.55  16.75  17.00
Sup  16.20  16.00  15.80
WTI.fs: 67.66
Res  68.10  68.85  69.55
Sup  66.80  66.20  65.55