9 Apr: Euro firm, US$ heavy; but now awaiting tomorrow’s ECB, US CPI, FOMC Minutes. WTI up 2% on Libyia tensions.

By | April 9, 2019

 

The US$ is a little weaker today, with the Euro being a beneficiary following the release of some better expected data from the EU. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose to -0.3 in April, up from -2.2, beating the expectation of -2.0and the best reading in 5 months.  The expectations index also rose, to -4.3, the highest since May 2018. On the other hand, the current situation index dropped for the eighth month in a row, to 3.8, the lowest since February 2015. The move higher in the Euro allowed the Aud and the Kiwi to squeeze up a little as well, given that the Sentix reported that it sees “signs in China that are increasingly pointing to an upswing”. Note that both Copper (+1.5%) and Iron Ore (+2.0%) made decent gains today, which also helped to underpin the Aud$. US$Jpy and US$Chf are pretty much unchanged, while Cable has been choppy but sideways, with few new developments, although a fresh attempt to oust UK PM Theresa May is under way over her decision to enter into talks with the Opposition Leader, Jeremy Corbyn.

US stocks are mixed, but generally close to previous levels, while the metals are a bit higher on the back of a softer dollar. Once again, the main action has been in WTI, which is up by around 1.8% (64.40) due to the renewed fighting in Libya, an OPEC member, which is pushing WTI towards the next major target at 66.80 (50% pivot of 107.65/26.03).

Tuesday is once again going to be fairly quiet in terms of data although the Australian Home Loans may provide some direction for the Aud$ (expected is 0.5%, prior was -1.2%). Europe has nothing to go on apart from the latest Brexit headlines, while the US will be pretty thin as well, with just the US NFIB Business Optimism Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory and speech from the Fed’s Clarida to provide inspiration. More likely, traders will sit on their hands while waiting on tomorrow’s busy session, featuring the ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Statement/Press Conference, the European Council Meeting, US CPI, Monthly Budget Statement and the FOMC Minutes.

Economic data highlights will include:

Tue: Australian Home Loans, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory, Fed’s Clarida Speech

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.05 (-0.32%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.521% (+1.02%), German 10Y; +0.06% (+15.38%), UK 10Y; 1.109% (-0.70%), Australian 10Y; 1.889% (-1.26%), NZ 10Y; 1.985% (-1.00 %), China 10Y; 3.269% (+0.95%)

Stock Indices: DJI; -0.32%, S+P; +0.10%, NASDAQ; +0.28%, EUStoxx50; -0.38%, FTSE100; +0.07%, Shanghai Composite; -0.05%,

Metals: Gold $1298 oz (+0.21%), Silver $15.25 oz (+0.48%), Copper $2.9325 lb +1.51%), Iron Ore $93.63 per tonne (+1.98%),

Oil: WTI $64.40 pb (1.82%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1259
Res  1.1285  1.1300  1.1325
Sup  1.1245  1.1220  1.1200
USDJPY: 111.49
Res  111.65  111.85  112.05
Sup  111.25  111.00  110.80
GBPUSD: 1.3062
Res  1.3120  1.3190  1.3270
Sup  1.2990  1.2920  1.2870
USDCHF: 0.9989
Res  1.0010  1.0035  1.0060
Sup  0.9975  0.9950  0.9920
AUDUSD: 0.7123
Res  0.7135  0.7150  0.7165
Sup  0.7115  0.7100  0.7085
NZDUSD: 0.6742
Res  0.6755  0.6780  0.6805
Sup  0.6720  0.6695  0.6670
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2897.78
Res  2900.00  2910.00  2920.00
Sup  2885.00  2875.00  2865.00
DJ30.fs: 26336.00
Res  26375.00  26445.00  26510.00
Sup  26260.00  26195.00  26140.00
SPI200.fs: 6217
Res  6225  6240  6255
Sup  6205  6190  6170
XAUUSD: 1297.55
Res  1305.00  1310.00  1315.00
Sup  1290.00  1285.00  1280.00
XAGUSD: 15.25
Res  15.35  15.50  15.65
Sup  15.15  15.05  14.95
WTI.fs: 64.42
Res  64.70  65.35  66.25
Sup  63.50  62.85  61.95