9 Apr: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | April 9, 2019

Monday has got off to a mostly rangebound start, although EurUsd has made some gains in taking out last week’s high,  reaching 1.1273, and has put in a Head/Shoulder base which now has a target of 1.1325. Interim resistance is seen at 1.1285 (38.2% of 1.1447/1.1182) and at 1.1315 (50% pivot of 1.1447/1.1182). Beyond 1.1325 would look towards 1.1345 (61.8% of 1.1447/1.1182) and 1.1385 (76.4%), albeit unlikely today. Another mostly rangebound session looks more likely, and it will be the ECB meeting,  tomorrow, that provides any directional move. A dovish ECB would stymie any further gains and, on the downside, decent support will again be seen at 1.1200/10. Only a break of 1.1175 would renew the downside pressure, for a run towards targets likely to be at 1.1125 (20 June 2017 low), 1.1100 and 1.1065. This seems unlikely today while waiting on the the ECB  tomorrow – who will be followed by the US CPI and FOMC Minutes, so it could be a busy session on Wednesday.

Elsewhere the FX pairs look rather neutral. AudUsd has again run into descending trend resistance at 0.7130, after earlier on Monday dipping to 0.7087.  Further choppy trade looks likely, but beyond 0.7130 would allow for a run towards the 100 DMA at 0.7150, above which opens the way to the 200 DMA at 0.7205, and the short term momentum indicators suggest that this might be the directional bias today.. The downside will again find support at 0.7100/0.7090, below which would open the way to 0.7080. Under here would see good support at 0.7050/60 and again at 0.7000/20, although again, this is unlikely to be seen today.

The Kiwi still looks a little heavy but is currently sitting above the support at 0.6735 (200 DMA) having dipped to 0.6720 during the session. A decisive downside break would allow for a run down towards 0.6695 (50% pivot of 0.6424/0.6969) and possibly towards 0.6627 (61.8%) although that seems a long way off given the limited volatility in the markets at present. The upside currently looks limited to 0.6755 (100 HMA) and then 0.6780 (200 HMA).

US$Jpy remains stuck at the 200 DMA, at 111.45, and if it manages to make further gains, the 200 WMA lies at 112.05. Essentially US$Jpy is trading on the back of the bond market and will take its cue from the US data tomorrow. Until then it should be quiet.

Note that on the crosses, AudNzd still looks as though it may be forming a base and could continue to squeeze higher. Resistance is seen at 1.0625/50 while support arrives at 1.0495 (100 DMA), so keep SL in place below here.

US stocks had another steady and the longer term momentum indicators do appear ready to continue to the topside, where a run to levels above 2900 in the S+P may be on the cards. At the same time, the DJI may see a run towards 26750, above which could target 26950. Having said that, the bearish divergence seen in the daily charts may be a warning of a change in direction, so keep stop-losses in place.

WTI has had another positive session on Monday and now sits at 64.40. Above 65.00, further targets are seen at 66.65 (50% pivot of 107.65/26.03) and at 68.65 (76.4% of 76.87/42.23). As we said previously, the S/H/S target is at 70.00. Buy dips, with SL below 63.00.

———————————————————————————————————————

*Trade of the day: April 9, 2019; 8:56 AM(AET)                      

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1325. SL @ 1.1390, TP @ 1.1200

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1175. SL @ 1.11400, TP @ 1.1290

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7150. SL @ 0.7180, TP @ 0.7080

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7090. SL @ 0.7040, TP @ 0.7145

Buy S+P @ 2875. SL @ 2850, TP @ 2900

Buy WTI @ 63.50. SL @ 62.50, TP @ 65.00