11 Feb: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | February 11, 2019

There is not much directional bias in anything at the start of the week, and the outlook is very neutral across the board although I suspect that the Jpy and the US$ are going to find some safe haven demand on the back of the political and trade tensions that linger in the background.

Note that Monday morning has seen US$Chf  already go for a wild ride, in tripping stops above 1.0030, which saw the dollar climb quickly to 1.0098 before reversing equally fast back to parity, where it had started the day. EurChf actually reached 1.1420, but is now a big figure lower and looks a bit heavy on the short term charts.

The Euro closed on its lows and looks as though it wants to test support at 1.1290 and possibly 1.1265. Sell it at market seems t be a plan, with a tight SL. The Aud$ also looks heavy but has come a long way quite quickly. With Iron Ore prices approaching $100 per tonne, we may see some consolidation and possibly a squeeze higher. However, selling rallies is still preferred.

The ASX looks ok in the medium/long term and buying dips may be a plan here. Otherwise I still prefer to be short Aud$ and short the Euro, given the economic outlook for both. The RBNZ meet this week and may well have a dovish tilt, so selling the NZ$ may also be a plan.

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*Trade of the day: February 11, 2019; 10:29 AM(AET)                         

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7160. SL @ 0.7205, TP @ 0.7010

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7050. SL @ 0.7020, TP @ 0.7150

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1375. SL @ 1.1405, TP @ 1.1290

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1325. SL @ 1.1355, TP @ 1.1265

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6760. SL @ 0.6805, TP @ 0.6650

Buy US$Chf @ 0.9935. SL @ 0.9895, TP @ 1.0020