9 July: Stocks lower, as hopes of aggressive Fed cuts diminish. Powell testifies to Congress today.

By | July 9, 2019

The main interest in a generally quiet session has been in stocks, where the US indices have ended down by around 0.5%/0.7% as investors digested the result of Friday’s US jobs data and the diminishing outlook for any sharp interest rate cuts from the Fed, while taking a cautious approach ahead of Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress, later today. As a result, yields are mildly higher and gold has retreated. The FX markets were generally quiet, with the Euro looking heavy after the Sentix investor confidence figure deteriorated (-5.8 vs + expected 0.1), and the German 10-year yield remained under pressure following the data as Deutsche Bank started its aggressive restructuring and job losses. Elsewhere the FX markets were quiet with the US$ generally retaining a mildly bid tone. Gold was down $10oz, back below 1400, while WTI, which had been bid for much of the day, saw a late selloff but remains within its recent range.

Tuesday gets under way with the release of the Australian NAB Business Confidence/Conditions (exp 2/3) and the China New Loans for July. After that it will all be rather dead through Asia/Europe as traders await the Testimony to Congress from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, during the US session. Also from the US will be the NFIB Business Optimism Index for June (exp 105) as well as speeches from the Fed’s Quarles and Bostic, but all the attention will be on what Powell has to say. Have a good day.

Economic data highlights will include:

Tue: NAB Australian Business Conditions/Confidence, China New Loans, US Fed Chair Powell Speech, US NFIB Business Optimism Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory, Fed’s Quarles Speech

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 97.37 (+0.20%)

Bonds: US10Y; 2.05% (0.47%), German 10Y; -0.368% (-1.54%), UK 10Y; 0.706% (-4.58%), Australian 10Y; 1.331% (+2.94%), NZ 10Y; 1.55% (+1.64 %), China 10Y; 3.163% (-0.41%)

Stock Indices: DJI; -0.43%, S+P; -0.48%, NASDAQ; -0.78%, EUStoxx50; -0.12%, FTSE100; -0.05%, Shanghai Composite; -2.58%,

Metals: Gold $1395 oz (-0.30%), Silver $15.03 oz (+0.22%), Copper $2.659 lb (-0.08%), Iron Ore $119 per tonne (NYMEX) (+1.77%),

Oil: WTI $57.52 pb (-0.35%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1211
Res  1.1235  1.1255  1.1270
Sup  1.1200  1.1180  1.1160
USDJPY: 108.74
Res  108.80  109.00  109.20
Sup  108.55  108.30  108.05
GBPUSD: 1.2514
Res  1.2540  1.2565  1.2590
Sup  1.2500  1.2480  1.2455
USDCHF: 0.9940
Res  0.9950  0.9980  1.0015
Sup  0.9915  0.9885  0.9850
AUDUSD: 0.6972
Res  0.6985  0.6995  0.7005
Sup  0.6965  0.6955  0.6940
NZDUSD: 0.6626
Res  0.6640  0.6655  0.6675
Sup  0.6600  0.6580  0.6560
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2976.80
Res  2985.00  2995.00  3005.00
Sup  2970.00  2960.00  2950.00
DJ30.fs: 26782.50
Res  26870.00  27010.00  27185.00
Sup  26725.00  26600.00  26435.00
SPI200.fs: 6619
Res  6630  6640  6650
Sup  6605  6595  6585
XAUUSD: 1395.35
Res  1405.00  1415.00  1425.00
Sup  1390.00  1380.00  1370.00
XAGUSD: 15.02
Res  15.10  15.20  15.35
Sup  14.90  14.80  14.70
WTI.fs: 57.45
Res  58.35  59.35  60.30
Sup  56.60  56.00  55.00