9 Mar: ECB policy unchanged; Euro lower. Markets waiting on Trump to sign off on tariffs. NFP later today.

By | March 9, 2018

 

The US$ is firmer today, with the Euro leading the way down after the ECB turned a bit less dovish in the statement, after having kept monetary policy unchanged. However, it could not extend its  gains as there was  no follow through buying and in the press conference the ECB President, Mario Draghi, toned down the significance of the change in the wording of the statement.

In other markets, stocks are currently pretty much unchanged after a choppy session while commodities are lower, under some pressure from the stronger dollar. WTI is particularly heavy, down 1.6% on fears of rising U.S. production.

Coming up shortly, Donald Trump is apparently going to be signing off on what tariffs are going to be implemented, so it could be a busy session as we find out the details. Be very nimble and expect ongoing reactions from those nations affected throughout the day.

Later on, Friday will be mostly looking to the US Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings for guidance, although there is plenty to digest ahead of that. First up, the Japanese CPI will be released ahead of the monthly BOJ Meeting, at which no change to Monetary Policy is expected, with all eyes to be on the accompanying Statement. From Europe, the main events will be the German Industrial Production and Current Account, while the January UK Manufacturing/ Industrial Production figures and Goods Trade Balance are also due. The main event though will be the US Jobs data, with the NFP (exp +200K) and the Average Hourly Earnings (exp +0.2%mm, 2.8%yy) being in focus. The headline unemployment figure is expected to improve by 0.1% to 4.0%, while the Average Weekly Hours is expected to blip higher to 34.4 (previous 34.3). Have a good weekend.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2308
Res  1.2425  1.2445  1.2460
Sup  1.2385  1.2365  1.2340
USDJPY: 106.23
Res  106.45  106.70  107.00
Sup  106.10  105.90  105.70
GBPUSD: 1.3806
Res  1.3830  1.3855  1.3900
Sup  1.3780  1.3755  1.3720
USDCHF: 0.9513
Res  0.9540  0.9575  0.9600
Sup  0.9490  0.9465  0.9430
AUDUSD: 0.7793
Res  0.7815  0.7840  0.7870
Sup  0.7770  0.7745  0.7715
NZDUSD: 0.7267
Res  0.7290  0.7315  0.7345
Sup  0.7245  0.7225  0.7200
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P: 2737
Res  2740  2750  2760
Sup  2730  2720  2710
DJI: 24865
Res  25040  25185  25350
Sup  24750  24620  24465
ASX SPI: 5948
Res  5965  5980  6000
Sup  5925  5905  5880
XAUUSD: 1322
Res  1330  1335  1340
Sup  1320  1315  1310
XAGUSD: 16.50
Res  16.60  16.70  16.80
Sup  16.40  16.30  16.15
WTI: 60.34
Res  61.00  61.50  62.10
Sup  59.95  59.15  58.20