9 Mar: Strong ADP jobs figure underpin the US$ ahead of Friday’s NFP. WTI -5%. ECB, China CPI tday

By | March 9, 2017

 

Coming just two days ahead of Friday’s US Jobs data, the private sector ADP figures have recorded their biggest increase in more than a year in February amid a surge in construction and factory hiring. The ADP number showed that private payrolls grew by 298k, the largest increase since December 2015 and well above expectations for a 190k increase. The January figure was revised up from 246k to 261k. All this has again underpinned the dollar, with a rate hike at next week’s FOMC Meeting looking pretty much a certainty. Commodities are lower, particularly oil, where WTI has fallen hard, by 5%, on the back of rising inventories. Stocks are more of less steady.

Thursday should be a more lively session, with the release of the China February CPI (exp 0.6% mm, 1.7% yy) and PPI (exp 7.7%mm) to be followed in the European session with the ECB Interest Rate Decision. No change is expected but as usual it with be Mario Draghi’s outlook in the press conference that will move the markets. He is likely to stress a continuation of the current accommodative policy and the success of QE.  He may underpin the Euro though by indicating that further easing is unnecessary although no surprises are expected. Once that is out of the way, traders will begin to look towards Friday’s US Jobs data, where the headline figure is expected to improve to 4.7% (from 4.8%) while the NFP is expected to be +190K and the Average Hourly Earnings, +0.3%.

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EURUSD: Heavy but rangebound above recent lows. Waiting on today’s ECB Meeting.

USDJPY: Choppy but finishing the day in positive fashion.

GBPUSD: Brexit woes not helping cable.

AUDUSD: Lower commodity prices pressuring the commodity bloc currencies. China CPI today

NZDUSD: Ditto Aud.

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US STOCKS:  Steady – waiting on Friday’s NFP

ASX SPI: Choppy, Rangebound

METALS: Under pressure following strong ADP result, increasing the chances of a March rate hike from the Fed

OIL: 5% lower after EIA report of a large inventory increase.

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The levels in this table are a guide only. For more in depth analysis please go the “Articles” tab at the top of the page and scroll down.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0542
Res  1.0575  1.0600  1.0640
Sup  1.0535  1.0495  1.0455
USDJPY: 114.35
Res  114.75  114.95  115.35
Sup  114.00  113.60  113.20
GBPUSD: 1.2165
Res  1.2210  1.2240  1.2300
Sup  1.2140  1.2100  1.2065
USDCHF: 1.0147
Res  1.0155  1.0170  1.0200
Sup  1.0125  1.0100  1.0075
AUDUSD: 0.7532
Res  0.7555  0.7580  0.7610
Sup  0.7525  0.7505  0.7490
NZDUSD: 0.6914
Res  0.6930  0.6950  0.6970
Sup  0.6900  0.6880  0.6850
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2362
Res  2372  2380  2390
Sup  2360  2350  2340
DJI: 20856
Res  20950  21035  21130
Sup  20840  20765  20695
ASX SPI: 5737
Res  5750  5766  5778
Sup  5720  5706  5694
GOLD: 1209
Res  1218  1226  1236
Sup  1206  1200  1192
SILVER: 17.23
Res  17.50  17.70  17.85
Sup  17.20  17.05  16.85
OIL (WTI): 50.31
Res  51.20  51.90  52.50
Sup  50.00  49.55  48.70