Coming just two days ahead of Friday’s US Jobs data, the private sector ADP figures have recorded their biggest increase in more than a year in February amid a surge in construction and factory hiring. The ADP number showed that private payrolls grew by 298k, the largest increase since December 2015 and well above expectations for a 190k increase. The January figure was revised up from 246k to 261k. All this has again underpinned the dollar, with a rate hike at next week’s FOMC Meeting looking pretty much a certainty. Commodities are lower, particularly oil, where WTI has fallen hard, by 5%, on the back of rising inventories. Stocks are more of less steady.
Thursday should be a more lively session, with the release of the China February CPI (exp 0.6% mm, 1.7% yy) and PPI (exp 7.7%mm) to be followed in the European session with the ECB Interest Rate Decision. No change is expected but as usual it with be Mario Draghi’s outlook in the press conference that will move the markets. He is likely to stress a continuation of the current accommodative policy and the success of QE. He may underpin the Euro though by indicating that further easing is unnecessary although no surprises are expected. Once that is out of the way, traders will begin to look towards Friday’s US Jobs data, where the headline figure is expected to improve to 4.7% (from 4.8%) while the NFP is expected to be +190K and the Average Hourly Earnings, +0.3%.
EURUSD: Heavy but rangebound above recent lows. Waiting on today’s ECB Meeting.
USDJPY: Choppy but finishing the day in positive fashion.
GBPUSD: Brexit woes not helping cable.
AUDUSD: Lower commodity prices pressuring the commodity bloc currencies. China CPI today
NZDUSD: Ditto Aud.
US STOCKS: Steady – waiting on Friday’s NFP
ASX SPI: Choppy, Rangebound
METALS: Under pressure following strong ADP result, increasing the chances of a March rate hike from the Fed
OIL: 5% lower after EIA report of a large inventory increase.
The levels in this table are a guide only. For more in depth analysis please go the “Articles” tab at the top of the page and scroll down.
|INDICES / COMMODITIES|
|ASX SPI: 5737|
|OIL (WTI): 50.31|