9 Nov: Prospect of a Clinton victory underpinning risk assets and the US$.

By | November 8, 2016

While America votes, we wait; Nothing else matters! In the meantime both the dollar and stocks are firm in anticipation of a Hilary victory. An early indication of the result is anticipated by around midday in Asia, once the Florida result is finalised.

While the world will be transfixed by the US election today, we could see some volatility on other accounts, led by the China CPI for October (exp 0.0%mm, 2.1%yy) and the PPI (exp 0.8%yy). Elsewhere the main points of interest will come from the Australian WBC Consumer Confidence, the UK Goods Trade Balance and the US Wholesale Inventories. The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change will also be released and could produce another move in the oil price if recent figures are anything to go by.

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.1018
Res  1.1040  1.1070  1.1100
Sup  1.1005  1.0960  1.0930
USDJPY: 105.14
Res  105.20  105.55  106.00
Sup  104.80  104.50  104.20
GBPUSD: 1.2391
Res  1.2440  1.2505  1.2555
Sup  1.2360  1.2335  1.2290
USDCHF: 0.9774
Res  0.9800  0.9840  0.9875
Sup  0.9730  0.9695  0.9680
AUDUSD: 0.7770
Res  0.7775  0.7800  0.7835
Sup  0.7730  0.7705  0.7680
NZDUSD: 0.7400
Res  0.7405  0.7440  0.7485
Sup  0.7290  0.7265  0.7220
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2140
Res  2150  2160  2172
Sup  2130  2120  2110
DJI: 18302
Res  18350  18425  18500
Sup  18215  18135  18070
ASX SPI: 5276
Res  5280  5304  5330
Sup  5250  5220  5200
GOLD: 1276
Res  1284  1290  1302
Sup  1274  1262  1246
SILVER: 18.31
Res  18.45  18.60  18.75
Sup  18.10  18.00  17.80
OIL (WTI): 44.83
Res  45.30  45.85  46.45
Sup  44.35  43.55  43.05

 

Indices/commodities
S&P Futures 2140
Resistance Support
2180 Minor 2120 Minor
2172 22 Sept high 2110 200 HMA
2163  10 Oct high 2102 Session low
2149 25 Oct high 2081 Chart Gap
2140 Minor descending trend resistance/100 DMA 2078 4 Nov low /200 DMA

Bias                                                                                                           

US stocks remain firm although the shorter term charts are now showing some bearish divergence. Sitting on hands until the election result is clear seems wise.sp

24 Hour:  Neutral

Medium Term: Neutral

DJI Futures 18302
Resistance Support
18546 8 Sept high 18215 (23.6% of 17799/18344)
18500 Minor 18134 (38.2% of 17799/18344)
18425 (76.4% of 18621/17798) 18070 (50% of 17799/18344)
18364 22 Sept high 18007 (61.8% of 17799/18344)
18345 Session high 17820 Chart Gap

Bias

Ditto S+P.dji

24 Hour:  Neutral

Medium Term: Neutral

ASX SPI 5276
Resistance Support
5361 (76.4% of 5435/5123) 5235 200 HMA
5315 (61.8% of 5435/5123) 5224 Session low
5305 (50% of 5488/5123) 5205 100 HMA
5280 (50% pivot of 5435/5123) 5165 8 Nov low
5278 Session high 5140 Chart Gap

Bias            

While waiting on the US election result a neutral stance seems wise although the daily charts have now turned higher and further upside momentum seems possible. In the meantime, the 200 DMA, at 5250, may act as a pivot.spi

24 Hour:  Neutral

Medium Term: Neutral

GOLD 1276
Resistance Support
1315 100 DMA 1272/76 Session low/200 DMA
1308/06 2/3/4 Nov high 1271 31 Oct low
1302 Chart Gap 1262 25 Oct low/4 Oct low /28 Oct low
1290 Session high 1255 Minor
1284 200 HMA 1246 14 Oct low

Bias                              

Gold remains close to the 200 DMA and seems likely to use it as a pivot in the coming session. The charts are mixed suggesting that conditions will remain choppy and for the time being a neutral stance is required.gold

24 Hour:  Neutral

Medium Term: Neutral

SILVER 18.31
Resistance Support
19.35 (76.4% of 20.06/17.10) 18.00 3 Nov /8 Nov low
19.10 (50% pivot of 21.13/17.10) 17.92 (50% pivot of 17.10/18.73)
18.92/95 (61.8% of 20.06/17.10)/100 DMA/200 WMA 17.75 (38.2% of 17.10/18.73)
18.73 2 Nov high/Session low 17.55 28 Oct low
18.50 Minor 17.40 21 Oct low

Bias                                                                                                 

Ditto Gold. Silver is pretty much unchanged today although it did see a brief spike to 18.73, creating a short term double top,  and with the charts looking mixed it would seem that conditions will remain choppy. For the time being a neutral stance is requiredsilver

24 Hour:  Neutral

Medium Term: Neutral

OIL (WTI) 44.83
Resistance Support
46.80 (38.2% of 52.19/43.55) 44.39 Session low
46.44 2 Nov high/100 DMA/100 WMA 43.55 4 Nov low
45.88 3 Nov high 43.40 200 DMA
45.58 (23.6% of 52.19/43.55)           42.98 1 Sept low
45.36 Session high 42.20 (76.4% of 39.17/52.19)

Bias

WTI is unchanged at the end of the session after a range of 44.39/45.36 and as with everything else, a neutral stance is required.  It may be that we continue to chop around here, with the OPEC arguments likely to hinder any major reversal of the current downtrend. In the meantime a Hilary victory could spark a relief rally towards 46.00/50.wti

24 Hour:  Neutral

Medium Term: Neutral


EURUSD: 1.1018
Resistance Support
1.1150 100 WMA/Weekly cloud top/Weekly Kijun 1.1006 Session low
1.1138 4 Nov high /100 DMA/Chart Gap 1.0995 (50% pivot of 1.0850/1. 1138)
1.1109/15 Session high/Weekly cloud base 1.0960 (61.8% of 1.0850/1. 1138)
1.1085 100 HMA 1.0935 (76.4% of 1.0850/1. 1138)
1.1066 Session high 1.0880 Minor

Bias

The 4 hour charts still point lower while the dailies remain mildly positive. Expect it to be choppy, possibly with much of the election result now written into the price although a Clinton win will most likely see the recent slide extend towards 1.0930/60..
24 Hour:  Neutral Medium Term: Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

European Commission Outlook for Economic Growth, US Wholesale Inventories, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change

Meta Trader
EURUSD: 4 Hour

euro


USDJPY: 105.14
Resistance Support
107.00 Minor 104.28 Session low
106.54 27 July high 103.76 Session low
106.00 Minor 103.20 Chart Gap
105.52 28 Oct high 103.00 Minor
105.18 Session high 102.80 (50% pivot of 100.05/105.52) /Daily Kijun /100 DMA /4 Nov low

Bias

US$Jpy is back at 105.00 and while the 4 hourly charts suggest further upside, the dailies look a little less certain. The chart gap to 103.20 still needs filling although a Clinton victory would probably test resistance at 1.0550/106.00.

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term: Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

Trade Balance, Current Account, Monday (Sept), Eco Watchers Survey

Meta Trader
USDJPY: 4 Hour

yen


GBPUSD: 1.2391
Resistance Support
1.2630 Minor 1.2360 Session low
1.2600 Minor 1.2335 Minor
1.2557 Friday high 1.2295 200 HMA
1.2505 Chart Gap 1.2275 (38.2% of 1821/1.2556)
1.2440 Minor 1.2190 (50% pivot of 1821/1.2556)

Bias                                                                                                                                                                   

Cable is unchanged on the day, at 1.2400 and with the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators looking mixed further choppy trade near current levels could be in store as the US election results roll in.

24 Hour:  Neutral

Medium Term: Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

Goods Trade Balance

Meta Trader
GBPUSD: 4 Hour

gbp


USDCHF: 0.9774
Resistance Support
0.9875 (61.8% of 0.9999/0.9680) 0.9734 Session low
0.9840 (50% pivot of 0.9999/0.9680) 0.9695 Chart Gap
0.9800 (38.2% of 0.9999/0.9680) 0.9680 4 Nov low
0.9788 Session high 0.9650 (76.4% of 9538/0.9999)
0.9775 200 DMA/100 DMA 0.9630 26 Aug low

Bias                                                                             

US$Chf remains pinned to the 200/100 DMIs and while the US election result remains unknown a neutral stance is required although the daily charts do hint at the chance of further dollar weakness in the sessions ahead.

24 Hour:  Neutral

Medium Term: Neutral

Meta Trader
USDCHF: 4 Hour

chf


AUDUSD: 0.7770
Resistance Support
0.7835 21 April high 0.7720 Minor
0.7800 Minor 0.7707 (23.6% of 0.7557/0.7745)
0.7773 22 April high 0.7680 (38.2% of 0.7557/0.7745) /(23.6% of 0.7441/0.7754)
0.7756 10 Aug high 0.7650 200 HMA
0.7745 Session high 0.7612 2 Nov low

Bias

As with yesterday, after making it up to a session high of 0.7748, the charts seem to be aligning to point higher, possibly for a run towards decent resistance in the 0.7800 and then the 0.7835 area. Near term dips still seem to be a buying opportunity, but the US election result will decide the outcome.

24 Hour:  Mildly bullish

Medium Term: Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

WBC Consumer Confidence, China CPI

Meta Trader
AUDUSD: Daily

aud


NZDUSD: 0.7400
Resistance Support
0.7485 7 Sept high 0.7317 Session low
0.7460 Minor 0.7292 8 Nov low
0.7440 Minor 0.7277 4 Nov low
0.7413 9 Sept high 0.7265 (23.6% of 0.7035/0.7337)
0.7402 Session high 0.7220 (38.2% of 0.7035/0. 7337)

Bias                                                   

The Kiwi remains firm after having made it up to the important Fibo resistance. As before, a neutral stance is required but the daily momentum indicators point higher and a Clinton victory would suggest that this could come about, for another look at 0.7400 and possibly even 0.7485.

24 Hour:  Neutral

Medium Term: Neutral

Economic data highlights will include:

Electronic Card Retail Sales

Meta Trader – AxiTrader
NZDUSD: 4 Hour

nzd