9 Oct: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities + Trade Ideas

By | October 9, 2017

 

S&P: 2545
Preferred Strategy: Stocks remained unperturbed by the poor NFP reading and had a tight, rangebound session on Friday. The slow grind higher seems set to continue but I prefer to stand aside. Neutral.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2570 Minor 2541 Friday low
2565 Minor 2534 5 Oct low
2560 Minor 2530 Minor
2555 Minor 2525 (23.6% of 2445/2550)
2550 5 Oct high – all-time high 2520 Minor


DJI: 22693
Preferred Strategy: Ditto S+P
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
22950 Minor 22679 Friday low
22900 Minor 22594 5 Oct low
22850 Minor 22550 Minor
22800 Minor 22500 3 Oct low/27 Sept low
22741 5 Oct high  – all-time high 22465 (23.6% of 21578/22741)


ASX SPI: 5692
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. As before, trading the range is the best medium term suggestion I think. Something like 5600/5750? Otherwise, stand aside.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
5745 Minor 5659 Friday low
5731 20 Sept high /3 Oct high 5627 5 Oct low
5725 200 DMA 5621 21 Sept  low
5715 Minor 5607 29 Aug low
5700 100 DMA/Friday high 5592 24 July low/(38.2% of 5029/5944)


XAUUSD: 1276
Preferred Strategy: While the medium term trend remains lower, the short term momentum indicators are now pointing a little higher, so a squeeze back towards 1285/90 seems possible. If seen, look to sell that, with a tight SL placed just above 1300. Sell Gold @ 1285. SL @ 1303, TP @ 1250.
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
1309 (50% of 1357/1261) 1270 Minor
1297 (38.2% of 1357/1261) 1261 Friday low/(61.8% of 1205/1358)
1290 29 Sept high 1251 8 Aug low/200 DMA
1282 (23.6% of 1357/1261) 1245 Minor
1278 5 Oct high 1240 Minor


XAGUSD: 16.81
Preferred Strategy: Ditto Gold. Look to sell into near term rallies within the greater downtrend. Sell Silver @ 17.00. SL @ 17.20, TP @ 16.40.
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
17.50 (61.8% of 18.21/16.33) 16.60 Minor
17.25 (50.2% of 18.21/16.33) 16.50 Minor
17.10 200 DMA 16.33 Friday low/(61.8% of 15.16/18.20)
17.05 (38.2% of 18.21/16.33) 16.12 7 Aug low
16.86/88 Friday high/4 Oct high 16.00 Minor


WTI: 49.19
Preferred Strategy: WTI still looks heavy and a move below 49.00 now seems likely although further out I still think we will eventually see a move back to 55.00 and higher.  Right now though the daily charts suggest a run towards 48.30, a break of which would then see the chance of 47.30/50. The 200 DMA at 49.45 should provide resistance now, and above that, 49.90/50.00 should see good sellers. .Sell WTI @ 49.75. SL @ 50.20, TP @ 48.35.
24 Hour: Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
51.30 100 HMA/200 HMA 49.18 (50% of 45.56/52.83)
51.20 5 Oct high 49.07 Friday low
50.50 (38.2% of 52.83/49.07) 48.35 (61.8% of 45.56/52.83)
49.95 (23.6% of 52.83/49.07) 47.70 100 DMA
49.45 200 DMA 47.30 (76.4% of 45.56/52.83)