9 Oct: Trade talk pessimism send stocks lower, Gold higher. Australian Consumer Confidence coming up.

By | October 9, 2019

It has been another choppy, sideways session in the FX markets although US stocks have lost about 1.5%/2.0% and the metals have gained 1.0%/1.5% as safe haven demand increases ahead of the upcoming US/China trade talks, where hopes of any significant progress is rather low and tensions remain high.

There have been some central bank speakers as well. Fed Chair Powell and Chicago Fed Chair Charles Evans have both been speaking but have so far had little impact on market moves. Essentially, Powell said that the Fed will remain data dependent with regards to Monetary Policy while Evans pretty much sat on the fence and said while he could see the need for another rate cut, it may be that he could also see the reason for staying on hold.

In terms of data, the US PPI unexpectedly fell in September (-0.3% vs exp +0.1%mm) which seems likely to give the Fed further room to cut interest rates for the third time this year in October.

Wednesday is going to be very light on economic events and it will be trade-talk headlines that provide any directional moves. There is very little on the calendar from either Asia (WBC Australian Consumer Confidence) or Europe (Eurogroup Meeting). Things could be lively during the US session, when the FOMC Minutes are due, while Fed Chair Powell will be speaking again, but that aside it will be trade headlines that dominate the session. Have a good day.

Economic data highlights will include:

Wed:  Australian WBC Consumer Confidence, US Wholesale Inventories, FOMC Minutes, EIA weekly crude oil stock change, Fed’s Powell Speech

Market moves, in brief:

FX: DXY 99.13 (+0.15%)

Bonds: US10Y; 1.537% (-1.59%), German 10Y; -0.597% (-3.58%), UK 10Y; 0.333% (-9.4%), Australian 10Y; 0.902% (+0.31%), NZ 10Y; 1.01% (+0.87 %), China 10Y; 3.127% (+0.10%)

Stock Indices: DJI; -1.19%, S+P; -1.56%, NASDAQ; -1.67%, EUStoxx50; -1.11%, FTSE100; -0.76%, Shanghai Composite; +0.29%,

Metals: Gold $1504 oz (+0.75%), Silver $17.72 oz (+1.7%), Copper $2.569 lb (-0.31%), Iron Ore $93.53 per tonne (NYMEX) (+1.06%),

Oil: WTI $52.52 pb (-0.55%)

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0955
Res  1.0975  1.1000  1.1025
Sup  1.0940  1.0910  1.0880
USDJPY: 107.10
Res  107.30  107.45  107.65
Sup  106.95  106.80  106.65
GBPUSD: 1.2221
Res  1.2270  1.2360  1.2420
Sup  1.2190  1.2120  1.2035
USDCHF: 0.9932
Res  0.9950  0.9965  0.9980
Sup  0.9925  0.9910  0.9895
AUDUSD: 0.6730
Res  0.6755  0.6775  0.6795
Sup  0.6720  0.6695  0.6670
NZDUSD: 0.6299
Res  0.6310  0.6330  0.6350
Sup  0.6280  0.6255  0.6230
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S&P.fs: 2897.28
Res  2915.00  2930.00  2950.00
Sup  2885.00  2870.00  2855.00
DJ30.fs: 26158.50
Res  26315.00  26495.00  26685.00
Sup  26000.00  25840.00  25700.00
SPI200.fs: 6511
Res  6550  6585  6625
Sup  6485  6450  6410
XAUUSD: 1505.24
Res  1510.00  1520.00  1530.00
Sup  1500.00  1490.00  1480.00
XAGUSD: 17.75
Res  17.85  17.95  18.05
Sup  17.65  17.55  17.45
WTI.fs: 52.28
Res  52.85  53.70  54.50
Sup  51.85  51.25  50.50

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