Category Archives: Daily Outlook

26 June: Mixed data, Friday, put the US$ under pressure. IFO, Draghi and US Durable Goods in focus today.

  The US$ finished the week under some mild downside pressure after some mixed data, allowing stocks and commodities to move a little higher. The PMIs were released on Friday with the Euro underpinned after the EU Mfg PMI rose to 57.3 in June, up from 57.0, beating expectations although the German Mfg PMI dropped slightly to 59.3,… Read More »

23 June: Markets generally rangebound ahead of Friday’s global flash manufacturing/services PMIs.

  It has been a mostly rangebound session in the absence of any key driving factors. The US data came in roughly in line with expectations and had little impact. BOE MPC member Kristen Forbes underpinned Sterling by reiterating her previous hawkish outlook and she will be speaking again later today. Elsewhere it was fairly quiet although note… Read More »

22 June: WTI down another 2%. RBNZ on hold. Possible range trade today, ahead of tomorrow’s flash PMIs

  Once again it was Sterling and Oil that were at the centre of the action, in what was otherwise a choppy but relatively rangebound session which saw mixed results for the US$; higher against the Aud$ but generally steady/lower elsewhere. Sterling bounced strongly as hawkish comments from the BoE’s chief economist Andy Haldane propelled it higher, counteracting… Read More »

21 June: Sterling lower on Carney comments, Oil, stocks also down. US$ firm. BOJ Minutes/Kuroda in focus

  The US$ is generally firmer on Wednesday, particularly against Sterling which dived after BoE Governor Mark Carney talked down rate hike expectations by saying that now is not the time to hike UK rates. The dollar was underpinned by ongoing, upbeat comments from the Fed, with another US rate hike apparently in the pipeline. Elsewhere, the main… Read More »

20 June: Fed’s Dudley, upbeat comments underpin the US$ and stocks. RBA Minutes & various CB speakers ahead

  The US$ is higher on Monday after New York Fed President, William Dudley expressed confidence that rising wages will help revive domestic inflation, which has shown signs of softening recently. He added that he thought that tightening labor market should help drive up inflation, offsetting concerns that stubbornly low inflation might not allow policy-makers to raise rates… Read More »

19 June. Soft data, Friday, put pressure on the US$. Major focus this week: The Brexit talks, which begin today.

  The US$  finished the week under some pressure after the US housing starts dropped 5.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units in May, the lowest level in eight months as construction activity declined broadly, suggesting that housing could be a drag on economic growth in the second quarter. In line with the housing… Read More »

15 June: Fed hikes rates, maintains outlook. BOE Meeting ahead, with a big US data download.

  It was a tale of two halves today, with the US data (CPI/Retail Sales) missing expectations and sending the US$ lower, ahead of the Fed rate hike which ensured a quick reversal, especially after Janet Yellen was slightly more hawkish than expected. The Fed kept its inflation forecast for 2018 and 2019 unchanged and also maintained its… Read More »

14 June: Strong UK CPI underpins Sterling. Otherwise all on hold ahead of today’s US CPI, Retail Sales & FOMC meeting

  Tuesday has been a choppy & rangebound session, with little direction seen anywhere apart from Sterling which is higher after the UK CPI unexpectedly rose to a 4 year high of 2.9% yy, as traders wait on today’s FOMC outcome. US stocks are a little higher too, trading just below their record highs. Wednesday is going to… Read More »

13 June: Nasdaq lower, underpins the safe-haven Yen. Cable heavy. US$ mixed ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision

  The dollar is mixed against the major counterparts on Tuesday, with Cable lower on the UK political uncertainty while the Yen is stronger, as some mild safe-haven demand appeared following the selloff in the NASDAQ which has continued at the start of the week. Elsewhere it has been mostly choppy, but without much direction, with the Euro… Read More »