Category Archives: Daily Outlook

6 Dec:US$ lower, stocks firm. Euro soars, after the early dip on the Italian vote result. RBA, US GDP today.

The Euro has bounced strongly on Monday after the initial knee-jerk reaction to Italy’s referendum and, judging from today’s price action, appears to have put in a near-term base. Cable is sitting near 1.2700 as it trades on the back of the headlines coming from the High Court appeal over Brexit and is currently flat […]

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Euro looking in big trouble following Italian referendum result.

The Italian PM,  Matteo Renzi has been heavily defeated in the referendum to change Italy’s constitution and has announced his resignation, marking a major victory for anti-establishment and right-wing parties and placing the EU into political chaos ahead of the swathe of EU elections, including those of France, Germany and Holland, due in 2017. The […]

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5 Dec: ECB, RBA Meetings due this week, while UK High Court Appeal over Brexit starts today #fx #forex

The US dollar finished the week on a relatively soft note even though Friday saw the unemployment rate fall to a more than nine-year low of 4.6%, with the Non-Farm Payroll increasing by 178K in November, making it almost certain that the Fed will raise interest rates later this month. On the other side of […]

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2 Dec: US$ slips, Sterling higher; WTI too. NFP in focus and then on weekend political event risk (Italy/Austria).

The US$ and stocks are generally a little softer on Thursday as traders book some profits ahead of the US jobs data due later in the session. In the currency markets, Sterling in particular had a good session, on hopes of a “softer” Brexit while the commodity currencies are generally weak along with the Yen, […]

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1 Dec: Surprise OPEC deal sends WTI 10% higher. US$ stronger as yields rise. Focus now on PMIs.

Today’s OPEC meeting has seen a deal to cut oil production, pushing prices sharply higher and causing a flow on effect in sending U.S. Treasury yields up, which in turn has seen the U$ rally strongly, particularly against the Yen. Also underpinning the dollar today, ahead of tomorrow’s US employment figures, was the release of […]

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30 Nov: Oil lower ahead of today’s OPEC Meeting. Other markets rangebound. Focus turning to Friday’s NFP.

With the exception of oil, financial markets have generally traded within their recent bands today despite some better than expected US data, which saw the Q3 GDP growth revised up to 3.2% annualised from the prior estimate of 2.9% beating expectations of 3.0%. The GDP price index was revised lower to 1.4%, from 1.5%. From […]

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Don’t let politics interfere with a good trade! Watch the Euro on Monday.

Note that we could be in for some serious volatility early next week once the result of the weekend (Dec 4) Italian referendum on constitutional reforms has been announced. Eight Italian banks face the prospect of failure in the coming months if a “no” vote prevails in Sunday’s referendum, which was proposed by Prime Minister […]

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29 Nov: Month end profit-taking curbs US$ strength. Q3 US GDP revision today

The dollar suffered a substantial correction in Asian trade on Monday, led lower by a selloff in US$Jpy which had become extremely overbought, although we have since seen a turnaround after a supportive economic growth outlook from the OECD. The semi-annual report indicated that Donald Trump is expected to undertake some fiscal stimulus in the […]

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DXY: Some consolidation is due, but longer term outlook remains very bullish #dxy #dollar #fx #forex

DXY: 101.35 The DXY rallied strongly last week, reaching a high of 102.05 before settling at 101.36. In making its move, the index briefly took out the important Fibo resistance seen at 101.80 (61.8% of 121.02 (July 2001 high)/70.72(March 2008 low) and although this will again be difficult to overcome, a sustained move higher could […]

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