Markets have generally traded sideways on Tuesday with the US$ unable to take advantage of the strong U.S. home sales, which rose in October to their highest level in more than 9-1/2 years to an annual rate of 5.6 million in October, the highest level since February 2007. At the same time, the September figure was revised up to 5.49 million from the previously reported 5.47 million units.
The global flash PMIs will be the early focus on Wednesday ahead of a heavy US schedule, which sees the October Durable Goods Orders (exp 1.5%, Ex-Auto; 0.2%), Oct New Home Sales (exp 0.59 mio) and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (exp 91.6). Having got all that out of the way, the FOMC Minutes will …….
Currency markets have had a mixed session on Monday, with Sterling the big winner after some slightly more positive Brexit headlines as the UK PM, May hinted at a the chance of a transitional deal with the EU in order to avoid a “cliff edge” for business when Britain’s two-year Brexit negotiating period comes to an end. Elsewhere, the commodity bloc currencies are also a little higher, assisted by a more positive attitude to risk
The US$ continued its relentless run higher on Friday as the markets price in the near certainty of a December Fed rate hike, with the Dollar index reaching 101.48, the highest level in 23 years, before drifting a little lower as profit taking set in ahead of the weekend. Following on from Janet Yellen’s hint on Thursday of an imminent hike, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard (recently dovish in outlook) seemed to underline her comments by saying that “markets are currently pricing in a high probability of a December move and I am leaning toward supporting that”. The dollar had already made its move for the day, led by the Yen which remains under heavy pressure but with the EU majors and the Aud also showing weakness, with technical signs of plenty……………..
The dollar remains firm heading into Friday as the market digests the comments of Janet Yellen, who was testifying to Congress, and who said that the Fed could raise interest rates “relatively soon” , adding that the Fed is prepared to adjust its outlook as the new Trump administration takes shape.
Friday will mostly be about central bank speakers, with not a lot else to go on. ECB Governor, Mario Draghi will lead things off ahead of the Fed’s Bullard and George, and the BUBA’s Weidmann. It could therefore be a……
The DXY today made a new 13 year high at 100.57, taking out the December 2015 high at 100.51 in doing so, before correcting a little to currently sit at 100.33. The daily momentum indicators suggest that the….
The US$ is firm at the end of Wednesday trade although off its highs after the dollar index (DXY) briefly broke above the December 2015 high of 100.51 to make a 13 year high at 100.53. It is a little lower going into the US session close, but a strong CPI reading due later today could be the catalyst to provide renewed momentum data to carry the dollar to new highs. As for the Wednesday session……..
The US$ has retained its positive momentum in the US session following the upbeat release of the October US retail sales, which rose by 0.8% versus expectation of 0.5%. The ex-auto sales rose 0.8%, also above expectation of 0.6%. In other positive news from the US, the NY Empire state manufacturing index rose to 1.5 in November, above expectation of -1. The DXY has broken above 100.00 and is now not too far away from……..
US$ strength has been the main theme at the start of the week, underpinned by the spike up in bond yields, where the 10 Year is now holding above 2%, while to 30 year has broken above 3% for the first time since early January. In the currency markets, the Yen, Euro and Chf have been under ……………..
The US$ remained firm heading into the weekend as investors digested the monumental ramifications of a Trump administration, with the possibility of a pickup in inflation heading into 2017 on the back of a renegotiation of free-trade deals and an unleashing of large fiscal stimulus measures. Elsewhere, commodities collapsed, led by……
The US$ has continued its post-election rally with the Yen under particular pressure, hurt by rising US yields, risk appetite and the diminished need for a safe haven trade. The other star performer on the day has been Cable, which looks as though it is building the legs to head higher still. Elsewhere, the major […]