Category Archives: Daily Outlook

23 Nov: Markets mixed ahead of US Durable Goods Orders and FOMC Minutes.

Markets have generally traded sideways on Tuesday with the US$ unable to take advantage of the strong U.S. home sales, which rose in October to their highest level in more than 9-1/2 years to an annual rate of 5.6 million in October, the highest level since February 2007. At the same time, the September figure was revised up to 5.49 million from the previously reported 5.47 million units.

The global flash PMIs will be the early focus on Wednesday ahead of a heavy US schedule, which sees the October Durable Goods Orders (exp 1.5%, Ex-Auto; 0.2%), Oct New Home Sales (exp 0.59 mio) and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (exp 91.6). Having got all that out of the way, the FOMC Minutes will …….

22 Nov: US$ mixed as FOMC Minutes come into focus. Sterling higher on positive Brexit headlines.

Currency markets have had a mixed session on Monday, with Sterling the big winner after some slightly more positive Brexit headlines as the UK PM, May hinted at a the chance of a transitional deal with the EU in order to avoid a “cliff edge” for business when Britain’s two-year Brexit negotiating period comes to an end. Elsewhere, the commodity bloc currencies are also a little higher, assisted by a more positive attitude to risk

21 Nov: US$ rules! Plenty more come. Market now looking to the FOMC Minutes (Wed) for guidance.

The US$ continued its relentless run higher on Friday as the markets price in the near certainty of a December Fed rate hike, with the Dollar index reaching 101.48, the highest level in 23 years, before drifting a little lower as profit taking set in ahead of the weekend. Following on from Janet Yellen’s hint on Thursday of an imminent hike, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard (recently dovish in outlook) seemed to underline her comments by saying that “markets are currently pricing in a high probability of a December move and I am leaning toward supporting that”. The dollar had already made its move for the day, led by the Yen which remains under heavy pressure but with the EU majors and the Aud also showing weakness, with technical signs of plenty……………..

18 Nov: US$, stocks underpinned as Yellen signals a rate hike coming soon.

The dollar remains firm heading into Friday as the market digests the comments of Janet Yellen, who was testifying to Congress, and who said that the Fed could raise interest rates “relatively soon” , adding that the Fed is prepared to adjust its outlook as the new Trump administration takes shape.

Friday will mostly be about central bank speakers, with not a lot else to go on. ECB Governor, Mario Draghi will lead things off ahead of the Fed’s Bullard and George, and the BUBA’s Weidmann. It could therefore be a……

17 Nov: US$ still in demand ahead of a heavy day of data. EU/US CPI in focus.

The US$ is firm at the end of Wednesday trade although off its highs after the dollar index (DXY) briefly broke above the December 2015 high of 100.51 to make a 13 year high at 100.53. It is a little lower going into the US session close, but a strong CPI reading due later today could be the catalyst to provide renewed momentum data to carry the dollar to new highs. As for the Wednesday session……..

16 Nov: Strong US Retail Sales underpin the dollar. Gbp bounces on news of a possible Brexit delay.

The US$ has retained its positive momentum in the US session following the upbeat release of the October US retail sales, which rose by 0.8% versus expectation of 0.5%. The ex-auto sales rose 0.8%, also above expectation of 0.6%. In other positive news from the US, the NY Empire state manufacturing index rose to 1.5 in November, above expectation of -1. The DXY has broken above 100.00 and is now not too far away from……..