Category Archives: Daily Outlook

16 Jan: Markets steady on Friday. ECB, Brexit, US CPI, China GDP, Davos & Trump inauguration in focus this week.

   The dollar remained relatively steady on Friday following the release of the US Retail Sales, which came in at 0.6% in December, a solid reading but missing expectation of 0.7%. Ex-auto sales rose 0.2%, also missed expectation of 0.5%. Headline PPI rose 0.3% mm, 1.6% yy in December, up from November’s 1.3% yy meeting expectation. Earlier in… Read More »

12 Jan: Trump gives little economic detail. A strong bond auction follows, sending the US$ lower.

   It was all about Donald Trump on Wednesday, with traders aggressively buying the dollar and stocks, while selling commodities ahead of his press conference. That all turned around very quickly once he started speaking – but giving little away with regard to economic detail – and the dollar weakness accelerated following the very strong bid in the… Read More »

A Q1 2017 Outlook for EURUSD

As a longer term view of the direction of the Eur/Usd, I think that this week is likely to be pretty much a “wait and see” affair, with liquidity probably remaining quite thin as traders are unlikely to want to become too involved ahead of the US jobs data, due on Friday (exp 4.7%, +175K).

Beyond that, looking into the first quarter of 2017,