Category Archives: Majors

10 July: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  EURUSD: 1.1400 24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies  – tight SL Medium Term: Possibly prefer to buy dips. Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  EurUsd is more or less unchanged following Friday’s unemployment outcome but the good headline figure for the NFP should be dollar supportive, I suspect, as it probably reaffirms another rate hike from the Fed ahead… Read More »

7 July: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  I am short of time today so there is no commodities outlook. As with everything else – wait for the NFP figure for guidance EURUSD: 1.1422 Short term momentum indicators: Neutral Daily momentum indicators: Mildly Bullish Upcoming market moving events: NFP 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Possibly prefer to buy dips. Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Neutral ahead… Read More »

6 July: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  Economics/ Politics/Central Banks: The Fed minutes hinted at increasing tensions on inflation shortfall Fed policymakers discussed possible reasons why financial conditions had not tightened following hikes in Fed funds rate Several Fed board member wanted to announce start of balance-sheet trimming within a ‘couple of months’ Currencies: Mostly rangebound, in choppy trade after the release of the… Read More »

5 July: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  EURUSD: 1.1346 Short term momentum indicators: Down Daily momentum indicators: Possible topping formation. Upcoming market moving events: The FOMC Minutes will be the focus but the global Services/Composite PMIs are also due. 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  The Euro remains heavy but rangebound at the end of the US… Read More »

4 July: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  Economics/ Politics/Central Banks: EU PMI manufacturing finalised at 57.4 in June, revised up from 57.3. UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 54.3 in June, down from 56.3 below expectation of 56.3. US ISM June manufacturing index: 8 vs 55.2 expected. US ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: Jun 57.2 vs 53.3 expectation, 53.5 prev May Construction Spending 0.0% v expectations… Read More »

3 July: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  Economics/ Politics/Central Banks: US personal income rose 0.4% in May, above expectation of 0.3%. Personal spending rose 0.1%, in line with consensus. Headline PCE slowed to 1.4% yy, below expectation of 1.5% yy. The Fed’s Bullard was rather dovish on Friday, saying that the recent “data has not been that great considering that we got going on… Read More »

30 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  Economics/ Politics/Central Banks: German CPI; + 0.2% mm vs expectations of 0.0%, +1.6% yy vs 1.4% exp. US Q1 GDP +1.4% vs expectations of 1.2%. Jobless claims: as expected, 244K vs 240K estimate. Currencies: Euro supported by rising yields after the strong German inflation data. Cable underpinned by Carney’s comments of the previous session and by better… Read More »

29 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

    Economics/ Politics/Central Banks: The US$ remain under heavy pressure after some bullish comments from central bankers concerning monetary policy again boosted risk sentiment as traders speculated that both the BOE and the BOC may adopt tighter monetary policy measures soon. BOE Governor, Mark Carney, reversed his recent comment that there ‘is no need to raise rates… Read More »

28 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  Economics/ Politics/Central Banks: Central Bankers galore, with more to come, including more from Draghi as well as Carney, Kuroda and Poloz. The main focus of the previous session were : Draghi: “All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the Euro area” and Yellen: “We intend to very gradually and predictably shrink our… Read More »