Category Archives: Majors

19 Apr: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.2378 EurUsd had a tight 50 point range on Wednesday after the Eurozone CPI was finalised at 1.4% yy in May, core CPI at 1.0% yy, in line with expectations. It could be a similar session ahead, with little data due heading into the weekend with the Philadelphia Fed Mfg Survey being the main focus today… Read More »

18 Apr: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.2372 EurUsd had a squeeze higher in early Europe on Tuesday, reaching 1.2413 before the ZEW disappointed traders, sending the Euro down to 1.2335, since when it has retraced some of the losses to finish unchanged on the day, at 1.2370. Wednesday will look to the EU CPI for guidance (exp 0.9%mm, 1.5%yy (Core 1.4%yy)). 1… Read More »

17 Apr: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.2383 EurUsd had a sharp squeeze higher in Europe on Monday, reaching 1.2395, since when it has chopped around below those levels. Tuesday will look to the German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production for guidance, along with assorted Fed speakers. 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. Daily Indicators:… Read More »

16 Apr: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.2327 EurUsd had a narrow range in a choppy session on Friday, leaving the momentum indicators mixed today and the outlook pretty much unchanged, requiring a cautious stance at the start of the week as we sit right on the top of the daily cloud. The March US Retail Sales will be the key driver today… Read More »

9 Apr: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.2280 EurUsd is slightly higher at the end of the week following a wild ride after the mixed messages from Friday’s US jobs data, finishing near the top end of the 1.2215/90 range. The Sentix and German Trade Balance will be today’s focus. 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher Daily Indicators: Neutral -Turning lower? Weekly Indicators:… Read More »

4 Apr: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

    EURUSD: 1.2269 EurUsd has been under pressure since the EU PMI release, breaking the rising trend support and falling to 1.2253 ahead of a mild bounce. The Euro is looking increasingly heavy and will immediately focus on the EU CPI, but may move sideways while waiting on Friday’s NFP reading 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower?… Read More »

3 Apr: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

    EURUSD: 1.2302 EurUsd has chopped around within the pre- Easter range, settling again at 1.2300, initially trying the topside in reaching 1.2344, but overall weighed down by selling in EurJpy, and with the US$ mildly underpinned by the decent ISM data. 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Neutral – Turning lower? Daily Indicators: Neutral Weekly Indicators:  Possible topping… Read More »

26 Mar: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.2353 EurUsd finished Friday with a 50bp gain but overall the pair remains very choppy in view of the uncertain political path, with trade-war concerns being in particular focus. There is little data risk today although there are a couple of Fed speakers and the Chicago/Dallas Fed will be releasing reports. US Q4 GDP- Wednesday. 1… Read More »

23 Mar: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

    EURUSD: 1.2305 EurUsd remains very choppy and has reversed the gains of the previous session. After heading up to 1.2288 in early trade the pair has since turned down, to reach 1.2288 before closing just above 1.2300, weighed down in part by the underwhelming PMIs. There is little EU data risk on Friday although Mario Draghi’s… Read More »

22 Mar: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.2345 EurUsd has reversed the losses of the previous session following the FOMC Meeting, and despite the mildly hawkish tilt from the Fed coming on top of the rate hike, the US$ has ended the day under pressure, at session lows. The PMIs and the IFO will be in focus today but also keep an eye… Read More »