Category Archives: Majors

6 Nov: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

    EURUSD: 1.1608 Preferred Strategy:  After looking as though it wanted to head higher following the release of Friday’s jobs data, the Euro then turned heavy when the US$ staged a broad based recovery, with EurUsd pretty much respecting the head/shoulder resistance at 1.1675 and leaving the outlook unchanged. As before, the Euro should hold below 1.1675… Read More »

3 Nov: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.1658 Preferred Strategy:  EurUsd remains choppy in a tight range either side of 1.1650 on Friday (1.1612/86), unmoved by the announcement of Jerome Powell as the new Fed Chair, and will now await the release of the US employment data. As before, ideally the Euro should hold below1.1670 on a daily-close basis, this being the 100… Read More »

2 Nov: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.1616 Preferred Strategy:  EurUsd is pretty much unchanged today after the Fed left rates unchanged, which means the technical picture is similar to yesterday, with traders now looking towards tomorrow’s NFP outcome. As before, ideally the Euro should hold below1.1670, this being the 100 DMA and the neckline of the head/shoulder formation, but a topside break… Read More »

1 Nov: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.1645 Preferred Strategy:  EurUsd is steady today after a tight range (1.1624/60), leaving the technical outlook unchanged, and it appears likely to stay that way until the US session when the ISM, ADP and the FOMC  Statement will provide the direction. Ideally the Euro should hold below 1.1670, this being the 100 DMA and the neckline… Read More »

31 Oct: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.1651 Preferred Strategy:  EurUsd is closing at session highs as the pair consolidates after last week’s fall.  Ideally this should hold below1.1670, the 100 DMA and the neckline of the head/shoulder formation, but a topside break would trigger some stops and could see a run back to 1.1700+, and the 4 hour charts do suggest that… Read More »

30 Oct: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

    EURUSD: 1.1608 Preferred Strategy:  EurUsd closed the week at 1.1600 and in the near term a mild squeeze to the topside looks possible, allowing the short term momentum indicators to unwind their oversold condition. If so, I think we should be looking to sell into rallies at around 1.1660/70 although a decisive break of this could… Read More »

27 Oct: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.1650 Preferred Strategy:  EurUsd is sharply lower after the ECB meeting and looks as though the head shoulder trade is coming to fruition, in which case the target is at around 1.1250. The NY close is below the neckline (1.1660) – an increasingly bearish sign. There is plenty of work to do before that and while… Read More »

26 Oct: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.1814 Preferred Strategy:   EurUsd is slightly firmer today, having traded up to 1.1817 ,closing at session highs as we now wait on today’s ECB meeting and the degree/duration of any tapering that Mario Draghi could announce at the press conference. Technically, there is once again little change. The major Head/Shoulder formation still seems to be under… Read More »

25 Oct: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + trade ideas

  EURUSD: 1.1762 Preferred Strategy:   EurUsd has had a choppy session, well underpinned at around 1.1740, and briefly shooting up to 1.1790, but closing in the middle of the range and leaving the outlook unchanged. The IFO and the US Durable Goods Orders will be the main events today, along with the usual headlines coming from the White… Read More »