20 Feb Outlook: Commodities, Stocks

By | February 20, 2017
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S+P: 2348

US stocks ended Friday pretty much unchanged from Thursday, leaving the outlook unchanged ahead of the US holiday.

The short term charts now mixed, so a sideways session looks most likely.  Bids will arrive at 2035/40 below which further support lies at 2330 and then at 2320. We are only a few points from the all-time high though and as before, while the “Trump effect” continues it would appear that the rally may carry on until we see some clarity on his economic plans. The dailies point higher so do not rule out a continuation of the rally to new all time highs in the days ahead. I  Stand aside.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
2390 2331 16 Feb low
2380 Minor 2320 14 Feb low
2370 Minor 2313 13 Feb low
2360 Minor 2300 Minor
2350 16 Feb high /All time high 2287 10 Feb low.

DJI: 20591

Ditto S+P

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
20800 Minor 20505 Friday low
20750 Minor 20466 16 Feb low
20700 Minor 20344 14 Feb low
20650 Minor 20224 13 Feb low
20624 16 Feb high /All time high 20100 Minor

ASX SPI: 5758

The ASX traded sideways on Friday, ending up pretty much unchanged from Thursday, leaving the outlook unchanged.

The 4 hour charts continue to unwind, capping the topside in the short term, although the dailies are still constructive, so a similar that seen on Friday (5729/68) seems possible. Above last week’s high of 5778, look for a run towards the 5789 9th Jan high, to 5800 and then to the May 2015 high at 5814. On the downside, support will be seen at 5730 a break of which could see a run back to 5700, albeit unlikely today. As with yesterday, buying dips still seems the plan, with a SL placed below the Thursday/Friday low of 5729.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
5814 May 2015 high 5740 Minor
5700 Minor 5729 Friday low/15 Feb low
5789 9 Jan high 5697 14 Feb low
5778 16 Feb high 5675 Minor
5768 Friday high 5650 Minor

GOLD: 1235

Gold traded another tight range on Friday, again testing the 200 WMA but so far unable to overcome the resistance, with any chance of doing so likely to depend on the direction of the dollar.

The 4 hour momentum indicators are mixed on Monday, so further rangebound trade seems likely with the 200 WMA providing a strong cap. If we do see a topside break, we could see a run towards 1255 and 1265 although probably not today. On the downside, support will be seen at 1230/34 and then again at 1215/20. A neutral stance is required, but I mildly prefer to trade from the long side, but with a tight SL placed near 1210.

24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1263 200 DMA 12334/32 Friday low/16 Feb low
1255 (61.8% of 1337/1222) 1216 16 Feb low /100 DMA
1248 (50% pivot of 1375/1222) 1207 3 Feb low
1244 10 Feb high 1200/1198 100 WMA /2 Feb low
1243/42 Friday high/200 WMA 1188 30 Jan low

SILVER: 17.98

Silver had a tight, rangebound session on Friday (17.97/18.10) leaving the outlook unchanged.

The short term momentum indicators are looking mixed, suggesting a sideways session although the dailies remain underpinned so we could yet be in for a move to 18.20 and to 18.45, above which could then see a quick move to 19.00. On the downside, the initial support will again be seen at 18.00/17.90, and again at 17.75 and at 17.50/55. Buying dips is mildly preferred, looking for another leg higher although I remain cautious because of the chance of another dollar rally. Keep stops tight below 17.90.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
18.98 10 Nov high 18.00/17.97 200 WMA /Friday low
18.65 Minor 17.90 200 DMA
18.45 Descending Trend Resistance 17.75 13/14/15 Feb lows
18.20 (76.4% of 18.98/15.63) 17.55 10 Feb low
18.14 16 Feb high 17.45 6 Feb low

OIL (WTI): 53.70

WTI had an inside day on Friday, trading a tight range (53.26/89) and leaving the outlook unchanged.

A cautious stance is again required given that the momentum indicators are generally flat and offer little hint in either direction, possibly suggesting a similar choppy day ahead. Above 54.00 would find further offers nearby, at 54.10/30 although this might prove a tough ask today. If wrong above 54.30 could see quite an acceleration towards 55.20 although the daily charts give little indication of such a move at this stage. Beyond that though, there is again not too much to stop it heading to 56.90/57.00 although this is a long way off. On the downside, support will be seen at 53.00/20 and again at 52.70/30 although equally, this seems unlikely to be bothered today. While pretty much neutral, I still mildly prefer to trade from the long side and buying dips is mildly preferred.

24 Hour: Mildly bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
56.90 (38.2% of 1.0765/26.03) 53.26 Friday low
55.21 3 Jan high 52.96 16 Feb low
54.19/31 3 Feb high /6 Jan high 52.71 16 Feb low
54.10 10 Feb high /6 Feb high 52.34 10 Feb low
54.03 16 Feb high 51.20 7 Feb low/9 Feb low