FX Charts outlook for S+P, Dow, ASX SPI, Gold, Silver, WTI #Commodities #stocks #metals

By | November 21, 2016
INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 2180
Resistance Support
2210 Minor 2172 17 Nov low
2205 Minor 2160 200 HMA
2200 Psychological 2150 (23.6% of 2028/2187)/100 DMA
2191 All time high (23 Aug) 2135 Minor
2187 Friday high 2125 (38.2% of 2028/2184)

Bias

US stocks again remained rangebound on Friday (2177/87), leaving the outlook for the beginning of the week pretty much unchanged, and further sideways action could be in store as traders look forward to Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes The dailies still look constructive though, and it is not out of the question that we do head above the 2187 high and on towards the all time high of 2191, above which would see a stern test of 2200 and beyond, although I would be doubtful of seeing new highs today. On the downside, below the 2170 minor support will find bids at 2160 and then there is strong support at 2150. For the time being a neutral stance is required, but given the look of the dailies buying near term dips in the 2150 area – if seen – seems to be the longer term plan. Just be aware of the short term wedge shape that seems to be building. A downside break could see an acceleration lower, so stops on long positions should be kept tight.sp

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips

DJI Futures 18841
Resistance Support
19300 Minor 18792 16 Nov low
19200 Minor 18755 15 Nov low
19100 Minor 18682 11 Nov low
19000 Minor 18560 (23.6% of 17417/18916)
18916 14 Nov high /All time high 18340 (38.2% of 17417/18916)

Bias

As with the S+P, the DJI was rangebound on Friday, leaving the outlook unchanged.

The 4 hour momentum indicators still point a little lower, so further near-term upside potential looks limited in the short term although the dailies remain positive, and buying dips seems to be the plan.  Until Wednesday, a cautious stance is required and further rangebound trade seems likely as we await the FOMC Minutes.dji

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips

ASX SPI 5368
Resistance Support
5440 (76.4% of 5568/5029) 4345 Friday low
5220 Minor 5325 Minor
5400 Minor 5300 200 HMA
5375/80 (76.4% of 5488/5029)/100 DMA 5290/85 (23.6% of 5029/5370)
5376 Friday high 5270/65 10 Nov high low/200 DMA

Bias                

The SPI did make up to the 5370 resistance on Friday (high 5376) but did not carry on, in what was a fairly tight session.  The daily indicators still look constructive though, so if the current resistance can be taken out, a quick move to 5400+ may be on the cards, and with the 4 hour charts also looking a little more positive today we could be in for a squeeze to the topside. Dips look likely to hold 5345, and below there 5320 should provide support, if seen. The preference is to be long rather than short, but with the FOMC minutes due on Wednesday it may end up being rangebound until then.spi

24 Hour: Neutral

Medium Term: Mildly bullish

GOLD 1208
Resistance Support
1259 (38.2% of 1337/1212) 1203 Friday low
1250 Minor 1200 31 May low
1241 (23.6% of 1337/1212) 1190 16 Feb low
1235 100 HMA 1181 10 Feb low
1233 16 Nov high 1172 (61.8% of 1046/1375)

Bias

Gold was again under pressure from the stronger dollar on Friday and traded down to 1203, but is so far holding on above the May low at 1200, just!

With the dailies pointing lower further declines look to be in store in the days ahead, and below 1200 would head towards levels which are layered at $10 increments, starting at 1190, down to 1170, so any downside progress, if seen, may be slow. The topside will find offers at 1215/20 and then again 1230/35 although this is now looking over the horizon unless we see a sharp selloff in the dollar. Staying short is preferred, looking to sell into the 1220 area. SL above 1230.gold

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium Term: Bearish

SILVER 16.55
Resistance Support
17.40  (38.2% of 18.98/16. 48) 16.48 (61.8% of 13.64/21.13)
17.30 (23.6% of 20.06/16. 48) 16.43 Friday low
17.23 16 Nov high 16.23 7 June low
17.04 (23.6% of 18.98/16. 48) 16.00 Minor
16.80 Minor 15.81 1 June low

Bias

Silver fell to meet the major Fibo support at 16.48 on Friday, which has so far propped it up, but given that the dailies still point lower it appears to be headed, eventually, for a test 16.25/00, below which would allow a run towards 15.80 and potentially to 15.40. Short term rallies should be limited to 16.85, possibly 17.00, which if seen would now appear to be a decent sell area.silver

24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies

Medium Term:  Bearish

OIL (WTI) 46.29
Resistance Support
48.40 (61.8% of 52.19/42.18) 45.80 Minor
47.70 Daily cloud top 45.15 Friday low
47.17 (50% of 52.19/42.18) 44.75  (38.2% of 42.18/45.46.38)
46.54 17 Nov high 44.27 (50% of 42.18/46.38)
46.42 Friday high 44.00 200 DMA

Bias

Oil prices were mixed on Friday, with WTI chopping around between 45.15/46.42, with hopes of an OPEC deal to limit production being offset by the stronger dollar. Technically, with the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators still looking mixed, a cautious stance required.  The 100 DMA at 46.00 would seem set to act as a near term magnate although back above the 46.54 (17 Nov high) and 46.65/70 (see below) could lead to a larger squeeze towards 47.15 and even back to 48.40. A downside break of Fridays low could see a move back to 44.70, below which would open the way towards 44.25 and possibly to the stronger support at 43.90/80. The dailies remain mildly positive, so the structural view of buying dips remains intact, as I suspect we are in for another run to 48.00 at some stage. Note the possibility of a reverse head/shoulder formation appearing on the 4 hour charts. If correct, a break of the 46.60 neckline would then have an objective of 50.60. Wait and see!wti
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips

Medium Term: Mildly bullish