GBPUSD: 1.2595 Resistance Support 1.2820 (61.8% of 1.3445/1.1821) 1.2500 Minor 1.2770 Minor 1.2450 Minor 1.2700 55 WMA 1.2425 100 HMA 1.2670 Minor 1.2400 (23.6% of 1821/1.2556) 1.2640 Minor 1.2300 Rising trend support Bias Sterling outperformed again on Friday, by heading up to 1.2673 as shorts were covered, before giving up some of the gains to […]
AUDUSD: 0.7540 Resistance Support 0.7650 (50% of 0.7777/0.7525) 0.7525 Friday low 0.7621 (38.2% of 0.7777/0.7525) 0.7505 13 Oct low/200 DMA 0.7600 Minor 0.7495 100 WMA 0.7585/88 (23.6% of 0.7777/0.7525)/100 DMA 0.7460 Minor 0.7560 Minor 0.7441 13 Sept low Bias Following last week’s spike up to a new 7 month high at 0.7777 the Aud$ has […]
EURUSD: 1.0854 Resistance Support 1.0975 100 HMA 1.0830 Friday low 1.0940 (23.6% of 1.1299/1.0830) 1.0821 10 Mar low 1.0923 Friday high 1.0800 Minor 1.0900 Minor 1.0775 (76.4% of 1.0521/1.1616) 1.0875 Minor 1.0710 5 Jan low Bias Eur/Usd remained heavy on Friday, with the dollar still underpinned by Trumps victory, and headed into the good support […]
The US$ remained firm heading into the weekend as investors digested the monumental ramifications of a Trump administration, with the possibility of a pickup in inflation heading into 2017 on the back of a renegotiation of free-trade deals and an unleashing of large fiscal stimulus measures. Elsewhere, commodities collapsed, led by……
The US$ has continued its post-election rally with the Yen under particular pressure, hurt by rising US yields, risk appetite and the diminished need for a safe haven trade. The other star performer on the day has been Cable, which looks as though it is building the legs to head higher still. Elsewhere, the major […]
It’s a whole new world out there today! In terms of markets we cannot complain about the lack of two-way volatility, and plenty of fortunes will have been made and lost. We can probably expect more of the same over the next couple of months as the Trump transition to power takes place, and it looks like being a wild ride into the end of the year, with the December FOMC Meeting still to come. At the end of the Wednesday session it has been a roller coaster ride, following Trumps conciliatory speech, and US Treasury yields have soared, taking the dollar and stocks along in their wake, while Gold, after screaming higher has now reversed all those gains and more by the end of the session. All up, this is not a market for the position takers and it will be the intra-day traders who will be to the fore until the current volatility subsides.
There is very little data due today which is probably just as well as no one would notice. The Feds Williams/ Bullard will be speaking.
While America votes, we wait; Nothing else matters! In the meantime both the dollar and stocks are firm in anticipation of a Hilary victory. An early indication of the result is anticipated by around midday in Asia, once the Florida result is finalised.
While the world will be transfixed by the US election today, we could see some volatility on other accounts, led by the China CPI for October (exp 0.0%mm, 2.1%yy) and the PPI (exp 0.8%yy). Elsewhere the main points of interest will come from the Australian WBC Consumer Confidence, the UK Goods Trade Balance and the US Wholesale Inventories. The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change will also be released and could produce another move in the oil price if recent figures are anything to go by.
The intervention of the FBI into the final day of the US election campaign, announcing that there was no new evidence found against Hillary Clinton regarding her handling of emails as secretary of state, has again had a major impact on global financial markets. Risk sentiment surged on the increased prospect of a Clinton victory, while at the same time diminishing the chances of a Trump victory and the uncertainty that that would bring with it. Stocks and the dollar both gapped higher at the Asian open and continued to trade strongly through the session, while Gold reversed some of recent gains due to the dollar strength.
The coming session will be all about the US election but, elsewhere, some volatility could be created by the China October Trade Balance (exp $51.7 bio, Exp -6%, Imp -1%). That aside, the NAB Business Conditions/Confidence is due, while from Europe we get the German Industrial Production, the UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production figures for September and the NIESR GDP Estimate.
Financial markets were relatively steady on Friday while waiting on tomorrow’s US election, with the US employment numbers causing little lasting reaction. The Non-farm payroll grew by 161k job in October, while the prior month’s figure was revised up from 156k to 191k. The headline unemployment rate fell back to 4.9%, down from 5.0%, while the average hourly earnings climbed more than expected, by 0.4% mm. The US trade deficit narrowed to USD -36.4b in September versus expectation of USD -39.2b.
The coming week is fairly thin on the ground for major data, which is probably just as well as the whole world will be entirely focused on the US election which takes place of Tuesday. That aside, the main event is possibly the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Thursday), where a cut is widely expected despite the recently improved data coming from NZ. Monday kicks off with the BOJ Minutes and the ANZ Job Ads, followed by the German Retail Sales, EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey and EU Retail Sales, but with little to come from the US.