4 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

  Commodities: Gold fell heavily through 200 DMA and never recovered, falling $20 oz. Similarly, Silver was down by 3.1% WTI was up for the 8th day in a row, +2% after data pointed to diminished U.S. output. Stocks: The DJI made a new all-time high but gave up its gains to leave stocks mixed on the day.… Read More »

4 July: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  Economics/ Politics/Central Banks: EU PMI manufacturing finalised at 57.4 in June, revised up from 57.3. UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 54.3 in June, down from 56.3 below expectation of 56.3. US ISM June manufacturing index: 8 vs 55.2 expected. US ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: Jun 57.2 vs 53.3 expectation, 53.5 prev May Construction Spending 0.0% v expectations… Read More »

3-Jul-17: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

While the short term momentum indicators for the US$ against the major pairs are mixed and recovering after having become overstretched the longer term outlook suggests that further dollar weakness lies ahead. While we are up against important support/resistance levels on almost all fronts (see weekly currency charts).which may hold for now, a break would suggest that further… Read More »

3 July: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

  Commodities: Gold and Silver traded a little heavy on Friday, as demand eased on the back of the reasonable US data suggesting that the economy remains robust, lessening demand for gold. WTI gained in price for the 7th successive session after the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count hinted that the number of active US drilling rigs declined for… Read More »

3 July: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  Economics/ Politics/Central Banks: US personal income rose 0.4% in May, above expectation of 0.3%. Personal spending rose 0.1%, in line with consensus. Headline PCE slowed to 1.4% yy, below expectation of 1.5% yy. The Fed’s Bullard was rather dovish on Friday, saying that the recent “data has not been that great considering that we got going on… Read More »

30 June: Forecast: Stock Indices, Commodities

  Commodities: Gold and Silver have again been choppy, but both have ended the US session more or less unchanged. WTI squeezed higher once again, but has come off its highs and finished up by about 0.3%. Stocks: Stocks were sold heavily, despite the better than expected Q1 GDP, with large-cap technology stocks more than offsetting any gains… Read More »

30 June: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

  Economics/ Politics/Central Banks: German CPI; + 0.2% mm vs expectations of 0.0%, +1.6% yy vs 1.4% exp. US Q1 GDP +1.4% vs expectations of 1.2%. Jobless claims: as expected, 244K vs 240K estimate. Currencies: Euro supported by rising yields after the strong German inflation data. Cable underpinned by Carney’s comments of the previous session and by better… Read More »

29-Jun-17: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

It all looks rather “risk-on” again today, and looking for levels to sell the US$ does appear to be the gameplan, albeit that some of the short term momentum indicators are starting to look over-stretched.  Sterling, Euro and Chf all seem to have the legs for further gains, while the Aud may also be picking up some steam… Read More »