What a difference a couple days make ! Last week the world couldn’t get enough safe havens… yen, swissy, gold and US Treasuries. The world was ending in nuclear war and hurricanes where wiping parts of the US off the map. Fast forward to this week and the world is in a good place. No war and Florida is still there. Equities are surging.. making fresh record highs. The equity market doesn’t want a safety blanket. Its risk on and fill me up with Apple ! The rate market is also offloading its safe haven bid. US 10yr yields bouncing from 2% to be almost back at 2.2% . USDYEN has rallied 3 big figs from its low last week… enough said there. Safe haven bids have been punished. The only market where the safe haven bid is still in price is Gold ! With what is happening in the other markets with the safe haven bid gold is wrong price !
Technically Gold had a bearish gap open on Monday. That gap hasnt been filled adding to the bearish price action. . On the open this morning we saw a brief spike to print a high at 1334.5. . That high converges with the 240 HMA. It been a great pivot for price and acting now as resistance. The hourly chart also printed a gravestone doji . Thats a top signal. Bias use these levels to get fresh short.Immediate target is lows of yesterday at 1322. Break here and scope for further downside to retest solid support at 1290/00.
Gold is the markets highest conviction trade and the market is long at extreme levels. Add USD selling looks like its exhausting and there is a strong case for being contrarian .