Sept 6th – Risk looks ready to roll over

By | September 6, 2017

Equity markets have been in a bull market and no matter what has been thrown at them they have managed to always bounce back and survive any meaningful sell off. That does look like its about to change. Technically the Dow looks like a big double top is nearing completion and the neckline under attack. The neckline coincides with the 50 DMA at 21740. There have been a couple false breaks of this neckline but it has been respected. In a bull market where a market is conditioned to buying dips it isnt unusual for price to take numerous attempts to break key support levels. However the fact the bounces now have created lower highs and price has now closed on the extreme low near the neckline gives confidence that its getting ready to take the momentum move lower. The chart pattern of the double top is approx 300pts… so a decisive break will want as a target 300 pts lower. That target coincides with a move to the 100 DMA at 21400. Previous decisive breaks of the 50 DMA in April and May of this year have had follow through to the 100 DMA so price does like this momentum move. The risk off move does get traction then the risk crosses (X/YEN) will be the play of the day in currency space. The EURYEN short we have been tracking has closed sub the 50 DMA at 129.60 and is now trading below it with a new bearish bias. Further out targets lot lower towards 128.00/50 support shelf.