|105.80||200 /55 MMAs||104.40||Rising trend support|
|105.61||29 July high||104.22||(23.6% of 100.05/105.52)/200 HMA|
|105.00||Minor||103.50||Daily cloud top/21 Oct low|
|Friday’s FBI announcement caused a sharp reversal in the strength of US$Jpy from the highs of 105.52 as it fell quickly back to the rising trend support at 104.45, before any stability was seen ahead of the weekly close at 104.75.
It would seem from the 4 hour/daily momentum indicators that we may have put in a near term top now, just ahead of the previously mentioned resistance seen at 105.60, but beyond which would head towards further offers at 105.80, (200 MMA) and 106.00. On the downside, support will be seen at the rising trend support at 104.40/45, with stops likely to be triggered below there which could see a test of 104.00 and potentially to 103.50, although I would be looking to buy the dollar at these levels if we see it down there. There is a bit of Japanese data due today, but it will be the BOJ (tomorrow – no change expected) and the FOMC (Wed) that attracts all the attention.
The rising trend support has been tested this morning (Monday) although for the time being it is holding. Any further safe haven demand for the Yen though could see it broken, potentially for a move back to the top of the daily cloud at 103.50
|24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips||Medium Term: Mildly bullish|
Economic data highlights will include:
M: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Nikkei Mfg PMI, Construction Orders, Housing Starts
T: BOJ Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference, Statement, Outlook Report
W: Consumer Confidence
F: Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment